# Ascending Triangle

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/ascending_triangle/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/ascending_triangle.md
Bias: bullish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 102 | 2.253 | -2.004 | 1.124 | 30.39 | 30.39 | 64.71 | 4.9 |
| 1h | 205 | 2.618 | -4.682 | 0.559 | 25.85 | 25.85 | 72.2 | 1.95 |
| 4h | 52 | 7.644 | -11.528 | 0.663 | 21.15 | 21.15 | 76.92 | 1.93 |
| 1d | 3 | 17.999 | -29.844 | 0.603 | 33.33 | 33.33 | 66.67 | 0.0 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 102 | 85 | 30.39 | 30.39 | 64.71 | 4.9 | -0.453 | 0.406 |
| 1h | 205 | 156 | 25.85 | 25.85 | 72.2 | 1.95 | -1.149 | -1.294 |
| 4h | 52 | 52 | 21.15 | 21.15 | 76.92 | 1.93 | -3.78 | -3.933 |
| 1d | 3 | 3 | 33.33 | 33.33 | 66.67 | 0.0 | 8.82 | 1.363 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.613 | 0.0 | 205 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.5674 | 0.0 | 205 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1385 | 0.047697 | 205 | — |
| geom_width | 0.1217 | 0.08206 | 205 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.1037 | 0.139121 | 205 | — |
| geom_support_slope | -0.1003 | 0.152259 | 205 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0777 | 0.268367 | 205 | — |
| geom_height | -0.0508 | 0.469166 | 205 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0449 | 0.522522 | 205 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0037 | 0.958344 | 205 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.6038 | 0.0 | 205 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.6024 | 0.0 | 205 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.1177 | 0.092676 | 205 | — |
| geom_width | -0.1144 | 0.102509 | 205 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.103 | 0.141469 | 205 | — |
| volume_score | -0.1009 | 0.149945 | 205 | — |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0725 | 0.301654 | 205 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0566 | 0.420289 | 205 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0449 | 0.522732 | 205 | — |
| momentum_score | 0.0127 | 0.856102 | 205 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.3101 | 6e-06 | 205 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.3058 | 8e-06 | 205 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.1061 | 0.130036 | 205 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0856 | 0.222482 | 205 | — |
| geom_support_slope | -0.083 | 0.236855 | 205 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0676 | 0.335196 | 205 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0575 | 0.412706 | 205 | — |
| geom_height | -0.0264 | 0.707311 | 205 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0168 | 0.811404 | 205 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0039 | 0.956004 | 205 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.311 | 6e-06 | 205 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.2246 | 0.001208 | 205 | ** |
| rsi_14 | 0.1983 | 0.004368 | 205 | * |
| extension_progress | 0.1799 | 0.009845 | 205 | * |
| geom_height | 0.1298 | 0.06364 | 205 | — |
| momentum_score | 0.0813 | 0.246692 | 205 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0688 | 0.327061 | 205 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0529 | 0.45134 | 205 | — |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0246 | 0.726028 | 205 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0123 | 0.861252 | 205 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.3271 | 2e-06 | 205 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.2607 | 0.00016 | 205 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.1927 | 0.005634 | 205 | * |
| geom_support_slope | -0.1541 | 0.027381 | 205 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.1088 | 0.120494 | 205 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0738 | 0.293244 | 205 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0542 | 0.440055 | 205 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0538 | 0.443365 | 205 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0162 | 0.817662 | 205 | — |
| volume_score | -0.0031 | 0.965272 | 205 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 225 | 3.082 | -3.852 | 26.22 | 65.78 | 0.44 | 7.56 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 201 | 2.553 | -5.045 | 23.88 | 68.66 | 0.99 | 6.47 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 69 | 2.202 | -4.809 | 33.33 | 56.52 | 1.45 | 8.7 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 446 | 2.611 | -4.149 | 24.89 | 67.49 | 0.89 | 6.73 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 49 | 3.958 | -7.387 | 38.78 | 48.98 | 0.0 | 12.24 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 196 | 2.959 | -4.659 | 12.76 | 81.12 | -0.0 | 6.12 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 298 | 2.611 | -4.346 | 35.23 | 55.37 | 1.35 | 8.05 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 1.23 – 3.47 | 30 | 1.608 | -2.617 | 36.67 | 63.33 | 0.0 |
| Typical | 3.47 – 12.1 | 148 | 2.54 | -4.231 | 24.32 | 73.65 | 2.03 |
| Elevated | 12.1 – 21.4 | 19 | 2.553 | -6.767 | 21.05 | 73.68 | 5.27 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 23 – 40.9 | 29 | 1.192 | -5.313 | 6.9 | 86.21 | 6.89 |
| Typical | 40.9 – 93.3 | 145 | 2.967 | -4.61 | 29.66 | 69.66 | 0.68 |
| Elevated | 93.3 – 119 | 20 | 2.078 | -4.578 | 25.0 | 70.0 | 5.0 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0116 – 0.148 | 431 | 2.611 | -4.421 | 25.75 | 65.66 | 0.47 | 8.12 |
| Elevated | 0.148 – 0.236 | 31 | 2.12 | -4.854 | 25.81 | 70.97 | 3.22 | 0.0 |
| Extreme | 0.236 – 0.483 | 33 | 5.07 | -4.742 | 33.33 | 60.61 | 3.03 | 3.03 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.0092 – 0.04 | 52 | 2.35 | -3.616 | 32.69 | 67.31 | 0.0 |
| Q2 | 0.04 – 0.064 | 51 | 2.069 | -3.676 | 23.53 | 74.51 | 1.96 |
| Q3 | 0.064 – 0.106 | 51 | 2.821 | -4.427 | 27.45 | 68.63 | 3.92 |
| Q4 | 0.106 – 0.512 | 51 | 3.24 | -7.028 | 19.61 | 78.43 | 1.96 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -6.6 – -0.472 | 124 | 2.317 | -5.762 | 27.42 | 63.71 | 0.81 | 8.06 |
| Q2 | -0.472 – -0.06 | 124 | 2.624 | -4.367 | 25.81 | 66.94 | -0.01 | 7.26 |
| Q3 | -0.06 – 0.211 | 123 | 2.847 | -3.454 | 27.64 | 65.04 | 0.82 | 6.5 |
| Q4 | 0.211 – 2.27 | 124 | 3.191 | -4.288 | 24.19 | 66.94 | 1.61 | 7.26 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -12.1 – -0.0235 | 124 | 1.863 | -5.411 | 4.03 | 94.35 | 1.62 | 0.0 |
| Q2 | -0.0235 – 0.121 | 124 | 3.664 | -3.602 | 25.81 | 61.29 | -0.0 | 12.9 |
| Q3 | 0.121 – 0.669 | 123 | 2.69 | -4.894 | 28.46 | 65.04 | -0.0 | 6.5 |
| Q4 | 0.669 – 14.2 | 124 | 2.76 | -3.975 | 46.77 | 41.94 | 1.61 | 9.68 |

### Extension candles

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 0 – 0.081 | 205 | 2.596 | -4.375 | 25.85 | 60.49 | 0.0 | 13.66 |
| Typical | 0.081 – 7.51 | 193 | 2.287 | -4.745 | 22.8 | 73.06 | 1.55 | 2.59 |
| Elevated | 7.51 – 22.9 | 91 | 3.656 | -4.193 | 32.97 | 63.74 | 1.09 | 2.2 |