# Bearish Flag

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/bearish_flag/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/bearish_flag.md
Bias: bearish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 1980 | 1.638 | -2.089 | 0.784 | 77.83 | 18.13 | 77.83 | 4.04 |
| 1h | 4914 | 3.798 | -5.109 | 0.743 | 81.42 | 15.1 | 81.42 | 3.48 |
| 4h | 1631 | 8.266 | -9.325 | 0.886 | 82.4 | 14.53 | 82.4 | 3.07 |
| 1d | 356 | 22.629 | -21.905 | 1.033 | 77.25 | 19.1 | 77.25 | 3.65 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 1980 | 543 | 77.83 | 18.13 | 77.83 | 4.04 | -0.237 | -0.276 |
| 1h | 4914 | 629 | 81.42 | 15.1 | 81.42 | 3.48 | -0.54 | -0.637 |
| 4h | 1631 | 514 | 82.4 | 14.53 | 82.4 | 3.07 | -1.37 | -0.827 |
| 1d | 356 | 250 | 77.25 | 19.1 | 77.25 | 3.65 | -5.929 | -4.739 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.3201 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| extension_progress | 0.3183 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.2486 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.18 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1443 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.1297 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.1199 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.1173 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.0614 | 1.6e-05 | 4914 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.0504 | 0.000411 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_breakout_potential | -0.024 | 0.093173 | 4914 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.3348 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| extension_progress | -0.3311 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.2578 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| current_scale_number | -0.1864 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.1513 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.131 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.1295 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.1251 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.0638 | 8e-06 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_breakout_potential | 0.0397 | 0.005437 | 4914 | — |
| volume_score | -0.0117 | 0.413738 | 4914 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.0349 | 0.014512 | 4914 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0304 | 0.033262 | 4914 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0301 | 0.034974 | 4914 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.0234 | 0.101619 | 4914 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.017 | 0.23324 | 4914 | — |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0168 | 0.240318 | 4914 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0107 | 0.454176 | 4914 | — |
| momentum_score | 0.0089 | 0.532663 | 4914 | — |
| rsi_14 | -0.0076 | 0.594982 | 4914 | — |
| geom_breakout_potential | 0.0069 | 0.62712 | 4914 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0018 | 0.900038 | 4914 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| momentum_score | 0.1382 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| current_scale_number | -0.0728 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0505 | 0.000398 | 4914 | ** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0475 | 0.000857 | 4914 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0452 | 0.001511 | 4914 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0373 | 0.008915 | 4914 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0368 | 0.00979 | 4914 | — |
| geom_breakout_potential | 0.0264 | 0.064531 | 4914 | — |
| volume_score | 0.024 | 0.092642 | 4914 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.0219 | 0.125178 | 4914 | — |
| rsi_14 | -0.018 | 0.206684 | 4914 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| momentum_score | -0.1201 | 0.0 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.0627 | 1.1e-05 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.0576 | 5.3e-05 | 4914 | *** |
| current_scale_number | -0.0553 | 0.000106 | 4914 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.0539 | 0.000158 | 4914 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.035 | 0.01405 | 4914 | — |
| geom_breakout_potential | -0.0307 | 0.031326 | 4914 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0066 | 0.64121 | 4914 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0046 | 0.745204 | 4914 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0045 | 0.751019 | 4914 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0039 | 0.786941 | 4914 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 5649 | 4.162 | -4.55 | 19.9 | 74.1 | 2.62 | 3.38 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 2078 | 4.188 | -4.829 | 24.78 | 71.66 | 1.01 | 2.55 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 362 | 4.498 | -4.073 | 31.49 | 64.36 | 0.56 | 3.59 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 7227 | 3.928 | -4.389 | 21.85 | 72.77 | 2.13 | 3.25 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 862 | 6.329 | -6.366 | 20.19 | 75.29 | 1.97 | 2.55 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10–30 | 10–30 | 310 | 4.201 | -5.872 | 13.87 | 81.94 | 1.93 | 2.26 |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 6699 | 4.201 | -4.578 | 18.72 | 76.27 | 1.98 | 3.03 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 1076 | 4.064 | -4.376 | 42.01 | 50.65 | 2.97 | 4.37 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.418 – 1.84 | 4599 | 3.802 | -5.113 | 16.11 | 80.17 | 3.72 |
| Elevated | 1.84 – 5.28 | 130 | 3.931 | -5.037 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Extreme | 5.28 – 3.75e+03 | 185 | 3.604 | -5.066 | 0.54 | 99.46 | 0.0 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0385 – 0.137 | 7253 | 4.171 | -4.623 | 18.71 | 76.34 | 1.78 | 3.17 |
| Elevated | 0.137 – 0.236 | 453 | 4.051 | -4.486 | 40.84 | 50.77 | 5.08 | 3.31 |
| Extreme | 0.236 – 1.48 | 383 | 4.576 | -4.297 | 55.09 | 36.81 | 4.97 | 3.13 |

### breakout potential

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.599 – 0.8 | 4806 | 3.795 | -5.098 | 15.42 | 81.02 | 3.56 |
| Q2 | 0.8 – 1 | 108 | 3.923 | -5.614 | 0.93 | 99.07 | 0.0 |

### resistance slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.001 – 8.75e-05 | 1230 | 3.379 | -4.468 | 19.84 | 76.91 | 3.25 |
| Q2 | 8.75e-05 – 0.000631 | 1227 | 3.546 | -5.224 | 17.36 | 78.73 | 3.91 |
| Q3 | 0.000631 – 0.00533 | 1230 | 4.18 | -5.447 | 16.67 | 78.37 | 4.96 |
| Q4 | 0.00533 – 367 | 1227 | 4.086 | -5.298 | 6.52 | 91.69 | 1.79 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.001 – 0.000165 | 1234 | 3.374 | -4.548 | 18.96 | 77.23 | 3.81 |
| Q2 | 0.000165 – 0.00103 | 1224 | 3.527 | -5.193 | 17.57 | 78.76 | 3.67 |
| Q3 | 0.00103 – 0.0083 | 1228 | 4.111 | -5.321 | 17.35 | 77.61 | 5.04 |
| Q4 | 0.0083 – 518 | 1228 | 4.18 | -5.379 | 6.51 | 92.1 | 1.39 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -6.19 – -0.444 | 2024 | 4.512 | -4.847 | 26.19 | 67.14 | 2.82 | 3.85 |
| Q2 | -0.444 – -0.00163 | 2021 | 3.949 | -4.311 | 23.21 | 71.75 | 2.02 | 3.02 |
| Q3 | -0.00163 – 0.453 | 2048 | 3.672 | -3.966 | 20.7 | 74.85 | 2.11 | 2.34 |
| Q4 | 0.453 – 8.71 | 1996 | 4.613 | -5.293 | 16.53 | 78.46 | 1.5 | 3.51 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -4.95e+13 – -0.577 | 2023 | 3.986 | -4.761 | 13.59 | 84.03 | 1.79 | 0.59 |
| Q2 | -0.577 – -0.238 | 2022 | 4.338 | -4.48 | 16.02 | 78.68 | 3.07 | 2.23 |
| Q3 | -0.238 – -0.0545 | 2024 | 4.242 | -4.651 | 19.91 | 72.88 | 2.32 | 4.89 |
| Q4 | -0.0545 – 1.13e+13 | 2020 | 4.167 | -4.509 | 37.18 | 56.53 | 1.29 | 5.0 |