# Ascending Channel

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/channel_ascending/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/channel_ascending.md
Bias: bearish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 540 | 1.944 | -2.278 | 0.853 | 74.07 | 23.33 | 74.07 | 2.6 |
| 1h | 1121 | 3.651 | -4.215 | 0.866 | 69.13 | 27.83 | 69.13 | 3.04 |
| 4h | 112 | 9.556 | -7.55 | 1.266 | 56.25 | 42.86 | 56.25 | 0.89 |
| 1d | 1 | 1.211 | -33.898 | 0.036 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 540 | 326 | 74.07 | 23.33 | 74.07 | 2.6 | -0.435 | -0.32 |
| 1h | 1121 | 404 | 69.13 | 27.83 | 69.13 | 3.04 | -0.674 | -0.324 |
| 4h | 112 | 96 | 56.25 | 42.86 | 56.25 | 0.89 | -0.355 | 0.331 |
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | -23.487 | -23.487 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.6881 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.6266 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.3778 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.2225 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1889 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.1653 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.1627 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.1178 | 7.8e-05 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.0256 | 0.391183 | 1121 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0077 | 0.796991 | 1121 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.002 | 0.946619 | 1121 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.6691 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.5998 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.3451 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.1956 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.1913 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.1737 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.1717 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.0852 | 0.004315 | 1121 | ** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0196 | 0.512445 | 1121 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0152 | 0.611062 | 1121 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0055 | 0.852822 | 1121 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| geom_height | -0.1782 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.134 | 7e-06 | 1121 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.1292 | 1.4e-05 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.089 | 0.002856 | 1121 | ** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.0867 | 0.003658 | 1121 | ** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0827 | 0.005588 | 1121 | ** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0826 | 0.005629 | 1121 | ** |
| geom_width | -0.08 | 0.007384 | 1121 | * |
| extension_progress | -0.0393 | 0.188253 | 1121 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0203 | 0.497884 | 1121 | — |
| momentum_score | 0.0081 | 0.786238 | 1121 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.2793 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.2782 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.209 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.1055 | 0.000405 | 1121 | ** |
| geom_width | -0.0781 | 0.008875 | 1121 | * |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0773 | 0.009633 | 1121 | * |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0463 | 0.121324 | 1121 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.046 | 0.123719 | 1121 | — |
| geom_support_slope | 0.044 | 0.141008 | 1121 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0366 | 0.221191 | 1121 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0029 | 0.921723 | 1121 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| geom_height | -0.3572 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.2461 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.2425 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.1755 | 0.0 | 1121 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.1229 | 3.7e-05 | 1121 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.0845 | 0.004638 | 1121 | ** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.069 | 0.020916 | 1121 | * |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0419 | 0.161311 | 1121 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0412 | 0.168338 | 1121 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0271 | 0.364063 | 1121 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0005 | 0.985396 | 1121 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 1594 | 3.669 | -3.447 | 27.35 | 55.33 | 1.39 | 15.93 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 1114 | 3.947 | -3.585 | 33.75 | 48.11 | 0.99 | 17.15 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 500 | 4.222 | -4.201 | 39.4 | 42.4 | 0.2 | 18.0 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 2288 | 3.761 | -3.365 | 24.83 | 59.13 | 1.27 | 14.77 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 920 | 4.075 | -4.228 | 47.93 | 30.11 | 0.55 | 21.41 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 1058 | 4.037 | -3.093 | 15.03 | 63.99 | 1.41 | 19.57 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 1864 | 3.814 | -3.759 | 37.93 | 47.48 | 0.96 | 13.63 |
| 70–90 | 70–90 | 275 | 3.319 | -4.697 | 50.91 | 22.91 | 0.36 | 25.82 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 1.02 – 2.48 | 182 | 3.1 | -2.72 | 34.62 | 64.29 | 1.09 |
| Typical | 2.48 – 7.2 | 760 | 3.674 | -3.998 | 28.82 | 68.29 | 2.89 |
| Elevated | 7.2 – 11.6 | 150 | 3.957 | -6.397 | 16.0 | 78.0 | 6.0 |
| Extreme | 11.6 – 21.6 | 29 | 4.944 | -8.005 | 20.69 | 75.86 | 3.45 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 26 – 52.5 | 189 | 4.412 | -3.884 | 29.63 | 69.84 | 0.53 |
| Typical | 52.5 – 122 | 739 | 3.55 | -4.165 | 27.06 | 69.28 | 3.66 |
| Elevated | 122 – 156 | 152 | 3.362 | -4.431 | 28.29 | 67.76 | 3.95 |
| Extreme | 156 – 186 | 41 | 3.046 | -5.843 | 31.71 | 68.29 | -0.0 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0146 – 0.227 | 2685 | 3.919 | -3.566 | 31.55 | 50.35 | 0.86 | 17.24 |
| Elevated | 0.227 – 0.369 | 367 | 3.521 | -3.721 | 30.25 | 51.23 | 1.63 | 16.89 |
| Extreme | 0.369 – 1.5 | 156 | 3.467 | -4.156 | 32.69 | 57.69 | 3.21 | 6.41 |

### resistance slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.0102 – 0.0648 | 281 | 3.038 | -3.343 | 39.5 | 56.58 | 3.92 |
| Q2 | 0.0648 – 0.0985 | 280 | 3.79 | -3.632 | 28.93 | 67.86 | 3.21 |
| Q3 | 0.0985 – 0.153 | 280 | 3.608 | -4.197 | 22.86 | 73.93 | 3.21 |
| Q4 | 0.153 – 0.603 | 280 | 4.171 | -5.692 | 20.0 | 78.21 | 1.79 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.0102 – 0.0655 | 281 | 2.995 | -3.326 | 38.79 | 57.3 | 3.91 |
| Q2 | 0.0655 – 0.1 | 280 | 3.849 | -3.64 | 30.0 | 66.79 | 3.21 |
| Q3 | 0.1 – 0.156 | 280 | 3.585 | -4.204 | 22.14 | 74.64 | 3.22 |
| Q4 | 0.156 – 0.665 | 280 | 4.179 | -5.695 | 20.36 | 77.86 | 1.78 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -8.09 – -0.534 | 802 | 3.58 | -4.062 | 38.4 | 40.65 | 1.5 | 19.45 |
| Q2 | -0.534 – -0.0403 | 802 | 3.478 | -3.578 | 28.93 | 52.87 | 0.74 | 17.46 |
| Q3 | -0.0403 – 0.327 | 803 | 3.953 | -3.404 | 32.63 | 54.05 | 0.87 | 12.45 |
| Q4 | 0.327 – 8.96 | 801 | 4.395 | -3.405 | 25.84 | 55.68 | 1.13 | 17.35 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.514 – 0 | 1144 | 4.114 | -2.976 | 18.62 | 64.16 | 1.14 | 16.08 |
| Q2 | 0 – 0.147 | 460 | 3.342 | -3.736 | 12.39 | 72.61 | 1.74 | 13.26 |
| Q3 | 0.147 – 0.738 | 802 | 3.873 | -3.804 | 33.17 | 48.38 | 0.49 | 17.96 |
| Q4 | 0.738 – 1.24 | 802 | 3.748 | -4.258 | 58.98 | 21.7 | 1.12 | 18.2 |