# Descending Channel

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/channel_descending/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/channel_descending.md
Bias: bullish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 869 | 2.253 | -1.422 | 1.584 | 75.83 | 75.83 | 20.6 | 3.57 |
| 1h | 1467 | 4.43 | -3.717 | 1.192 | 73.21 | 73.21 | 22.43 | 4.36 |
| 4h | 184 | 6.965 | -6.925 | 1.006 | 67.39 | 67.39 | 26.63 | 5.98 |
| 1d | 1 | 61.859 | -0.16 | 386.619 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 869 | 431 | 75.83 | 75.83 | 20.6 | 3.57 | 0.443 | 0.474 |
| 1h | 1467 | 483 | 73.21 | 73.21 | 22.43 | 4.36 | 0.646 | 0.466 |
| 4h | 184 | 135 | 67.39 | 67.39 | 26.63 | 5.98 | -0.417 | -0.533 |
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.673 | 20.673 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.5754 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.5689 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.4294 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.4082 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.2346 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.0552 | 0.034501 | 1467 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.0547 | 0.036054 | 1467 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0427 | 0.102192 | 1467 | — |
| geom_height | -0.0383 | 0.142376 | 1467 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0367 | 0.159574 | 1467 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0191 | 0.464714 | 1467 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.6494 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.6357 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.4881 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.4675 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.2802 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0915 | 0.00045 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0914 | 0.000456 | 1467 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0305 | 0.243334 | 1467 | — |
| geom_width | -0.0245 | 0.349012 | 1467 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0237 | 0.363553 | 1467 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0011 | 0.966309 | 1467 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.0721 | 0.00571 | 1467 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0511 | 0.050479 | 1467 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0477 | 0.067682 | 1467 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0367 | 0.160372 | 1467 | — |
| geom_support_slope | -0.0355 | 0.174238 | 1467 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.035 | 0.180354 | 1467 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0346 | 0.185292 | 1467 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.0345 | 0.18614 | 1467 | — |
| current_scale_number | 0.0196 | 0.453507 | 1467 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0112 | 0.667781 | 1467 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0065 | 0.802661 | 1467 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| geom_support_slope | -0.2431 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.2409 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.2131 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1144 | 1.1e-05 | 1467 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.1062 | 4.6e-05 | 1467 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.0562 | 0.031516 | 1467 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0408 | 0.118592 | 1467 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0386 | 0.13977 | 1467 | — |
| volume_score | -0.0173 | 0.50904 | 1467 | — |
| momentum_score | 0.0042 | 0.871699 | 1467 | — |
| geom_width | -0.0008 | 0.976608 | 1467 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.2923 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.2498 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.2333 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.2167 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.1428 | 0.0 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.125 | 2e-06 | 1467 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.1238 | 2e-06 | 1467 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.1108 | 2.1e-05 | 1467 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0519 | 0.046968 | 1467 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0372 | 0.154436 | 1467 | — |
| geom_width | 0.028 | 0.2834 | 1467 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 2161 | 3.566 | -3.934 | 56.04 | 20.92 | 1.94 | 21.1 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 1300 | 3.844 | -3.724 | 50.77 | 27.46 | 1.46 | 20.31 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 665 | 4.405 | -4.365 | 35.49 | 40.45 | 0.45 | 23.61 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 2971 | 3.397 | -3.77 | 59.68 | 18.07 | 1.99 | 20.26 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 1155 | 4.798 | -4.37 | 28.92 | 46.84 | 0.43 | 23.81 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10–30 | 10–30 | 410 | 5.823 | -3.597 | 19.76 | 56.1 | 0.24 | 23.9 |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 2333 | 3.944 | -3.928 | 50.49 | 29.45 | 1.46 | 18.6 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 1373 | 2.932 | -4.033 | 61.54 | 11.58 | 2.12 | 24.76 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 1.01 – 2.9 | 252 | 3.123 | -2.685 | 75.79 | 22.22 | 1.99 |
| Typical | 2.9 – 7.55 | 979 | 4.244 | -3.777 | 73.03 | 22.57 | 4.4 |
| Elevated | 7.55 – 11.7 | 213 | 6.615 | -4.354 | 72.3 | 21.6 | 6.1 |
| Extreme | 11.7 – 21 | 23 | 6.436 | -6.577 | 60.87 | 26.09 | 13.04 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 24 – 54.6 | 241 | 4.789 | -3.633 | 69.29 | 26.14 | 4.57 |
| Typical | 54.6 – 123 | 955 | 4.46 | -3.694 | 74.66 | 21.26 | 4.08 |
| Elevated | 123 – 157 | 219 | 4.005 | -3.868 | 72.15 | 21.92 | 5.93 |
| Extreme | 157 – 186 | 52 | 4.004 | -3.899 | 69.23 | 28.85 | 1.92 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0125 – 0.213 | 3464 | 3.719 | -4.044 | 49.31 | 27.11 | 1.35 | 22.23 |
| Elevated | 0.213 – 0.345 | 463 | 3.996 | -3.443 | 59.18 | 20.09 | 1.94 | 18.79 |
| Extreme | 0.345 – 1.14 | 199 | 4.523 | -3.236 | 62.81 | 23.12 | 4.02 | 10.05 |

### resistance slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.551 – -0.156 | 367 | 5.84 | -4.487 | 75.75 | 17.71 | 6.54 |
| Q2 | -0.156 – -0.106 | 367 | 4.437 | -3.996 | 74.93 | 20.71 | 4.36 |
| Q3 | -0.106 – -0.0725 | 366 | 4.025 | -3.142 | 71.31 | 24.86 | 3.83 |
| Q4 | -0.0725 – -0.0114 | 367 | 3.417 | -3.241 | 70.84 | 26.43 | 2.73 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.599 – -0.162 | 367 | 5.888 | -4.468 | 76.02 | 17.44 | 6.54 |
| Q2 | -0.162 – -0.108 | 367 | 4.414 | -4.01 | 74.93 | 20.44 | 4.63 |
| Q3 | -0.108 – -0.0734 | 366 | 4.006 | -3.193 | 71.31 | 25.14 | 3.55 |
| Q4 | -0.0734 – -0.0115 | 367 | 3.411 | -3.196 | 70.57 | 26.7 | 2.73 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -6.17 – -0.486 | 1032 | 3.499 | -3.939 | 59.4 | 13.66 | 1.65 | 25.29 |
| Q2 | -0.486 – 0.00297 | 1031 | 3.192 | -3.927 | 57.32 | 18.72 | 2.62 | 21.34 |
| Q3 | 0.00297 – 0.642 | 1031 | 3.563 | -3.419 | 54.8 | 25.02 | 1.65 | 18.53 |
| Q4 | 0.642 – 8.71 | 1032 | 4.901 | -4.465 | 32.75 | 47.09 | 0.3 | 19.86 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.308 – 0.408 | 1032 | 4.902 | -4.03 | 18.51 | 58.62 | 0.2 | 22.67 |
| Q2 | 0.408 – 0.945 | 1031 | 4.121 | -3.506 | 57.71 | 20.27 | 0.78 | 21.24 |
| Q3 | 0.945 – 1 | 1219 | 2.405 | -4.754 | 46.84 | 19.2 | 0.82 | 33.14 |
| Q4 | 1 – 1.47 | 844 | 4.022 | -3.172 | 88.86 | 3.55 | 5.22 | 2.37 |