# Descending Triangle

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/descending_triangle/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/descending_triangle.md
Bias: bearish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 135 | 2.141 | -1.365 | 1.568 | 25.93 | 71.85 | 25.93 | 2.22 |
| 1h | 236 | 5.649 | -2.72 | 2.077 | 26.69 | 72.46 | 26.69 | 0.85 |
| 4h | 89 | 13.402 | -4.831 | 2.774 | 31.46 | 67.42 | 31.46 | 1.12 |
| 1d | 15 | 14.058 | -20.491 | 0.686 | 53.33 | 46.67 | 53.33 | 0.0 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 135 | 115 | 25.93 | 71.85 | 25.93 | 2.22 | 0.367 | 0.277 |
| 1h | 236 | 189 | 26.69 | 72.46 | 26.69 | 0.85 | 1.087 | 1.478 |
| 4h | 89 | 79 | 31.46 | 67.42 | 31.46 | 1.12 | 1.959 | 3.779 |
| 1d | 15 | 15 | 53.33 | 46.67 | 53.33 | 0.0 | -7.046 | -4.488 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.6432 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.6142 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.3284 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.2935 | 5e-06 | 236 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.1307 | 0.044905 | 236 | — |
| volume_score | -0.0844 | 0.196133 | 236 | — |
| geom_height | -0.0676 | 0.301094 | 236 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0499 | 0.445322 | 236 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0101 | 0.87787 | 236 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0019 | 0.977087 | 236 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.6426 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.6241 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.3288 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.3022 | 2e-06 | 236 | *** |
| geom_width | 0.124 | 0.057096 | 236 | — |
| volume_score | 0.1023 | 0.117082 | 236 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0434 | 0.507226 | 236 | — |
| geom_height | 0.039 | 0.550886 | 236 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0205 | 0.754556 | 236 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.006 | 0.927015 | 236 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.2845 | 9e-06 | 236 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.2621 | 4.6e-05 | 236 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.2197 | 0.000678 | 236 | ** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.2079 | 0.001319 | 236 | ** |
| geom_height | -0.0578 | 0.376612 | 236 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0525 | 0.422224 | 236 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0435 | 0.506152 | 236 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0361 | 0.581043 | 236 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0345 | 0.597745 | 236 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.0262 | 0.689212 | 236 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| rsi_14 | 0.3029 | 2e-06 | 236 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.257 | 6.5e-05 | 236 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.1701 | 0.008834 | 236 | * |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1457 | 0.025246 | 236 | — |
| geom_width | -0.1452 | 0.025749 | 236 | — |
| geom_height | 0.1269 | 0.051553 | 236 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0808 | 0.216406 | 236 | — |
| volume_score | 0.051 | 0.435511 | 236 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0296 | 0.651461 | 236 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0006 | 0.993113 | 236 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.3857 | 0.0 | 236 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.3121 | 1e-06 | 236 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.2143 | 0.000924 | 236 | ** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.2098 | 0.001186 | 236 | ** |
| geom_width | -0.1963 | 0.00245 | 236 | ** |
| geom_height | -0.1954 | 0.002573 | 236 | ** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0606 | 0.354266 | 236 | — |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0334 | 0.6099 | 236 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0188 | 0.774083 | 236 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0031 | 0.962074 | 236 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 252 | 4.26 | -3.225 | 65.08 | 26.98 | 0.8 | 7.14 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 221 | 6.135 | -2.5 | 64.71 | 28.51 | -0.01 | 6.79 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 79 | 5.33 | -2.87 | 65.82 | 25.32 | 0.0 | 8.86 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 486 | 5.166 | -2.785 | 68.11 | 24.9 | 0.41 | 6.58 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 66 | 5.146 | -3.61 | 42.42 | 45.45 | 0.01 | 12.12 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 355 | 5.297 | -2.782 | 62.25 | 32.39 | 0.29 | 5.07 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 196 | 4.933 | -3.069 | 69.9 | 18.37 | 0.51 | 11.22 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 1.41 – 4.24 | 34 | 3.695 | -1.544 | 79.41 | 20.59 | 0.0 |
| Typical | 4.24 – 16.2 | 164 | 5.513 | -2.753 | 71.34 | 28.66 | -0.0 |
| Elevated | 16.2 – 30 | 33 | 5.874 | -3.743 | 66.67 | 27.27 | 6.06 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 23 – 50.7 | 36 | 6.538 | -1.925 | 75.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 |
| Typical | 50.7 – 100 | 160 | 5.652 | -2.754 | 74.38 | 24.38 | 1.24 |
| Elevated | 100 – 125 | 35 | 4.459 | -3.5 | 62.86 | 37.14 | 0.0 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0106 – 0.124 | 478 | 5.249 | -2.936 | 63.6 | 27.62 | 0.41 | 8.37 |
| Elevated | 0.124 – 0.199 | 43 | 5.259 | -2.59 | 69.77 | 30.23 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Extreme | 0.199 – 0.404 | 31 | 3.725 | -2.493 | 80.65 | 19.35 | -0.0 | 0.0 |

### resistance slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.499 – -0.111 | 59 | 6.778 | -3.058 | 72.88 | 23.73 | 3.39 |
| Q2 | -0.111 – -0.0721 | 59 | 4.824 | -2.595 | 72.88 | 27.12 | 0.0 |
| Q3 | -0.0721 – -0.0439 | 59 | 6.331 | -2.991 | 66.1 | 33.9 | 0.0 |
| Q4 | -0.0439 – -0.0104 | 59 | 4.664 | -2.236 | 77.97 | 22.03 | 0.0 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -4.15 – -0.333 | 138 | 6.19 | -3.059 | 66.67 | 22.46 | 0.73 | 10.14 |
| Q2 | -0.333 – -0.00844 | 139 | 3.69 | -3.037 | 59.71 | 31.65 | 0.01 | 8.63 |
| Q3 | -0.00844 – 0.347 | 137 | 4.699 | -2.456 | 69.34 | 24.09 | 0.73 | 5.84 |
| Q4 | 0.347 – 2.71 | 138 | 6.083 | -2.98 | 64.49 | 31.16 | 0.0 | 4.35 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -18.5 – 0.381 | 138 | 4.921 | -3.566 | 39.13 | 52.9 | -0.0 | 7.97 |
| Q2 | 0.381 – 0.876 | 138 | 6.929 | -1.745 | 77.54 | 16.67 | 0.72 | 5.07 |
| Q3 | 0.876 – 1.03 | 138 | 2.996 | -4.286 | 50.72 | 33.33 | 0.01 | 15.94 |
| Q4 | 1.03 – 164 | 138 | 5.809 | -1.939 | 92.75 | 6.52 | 0.73 | 0.0 |

### Extension candles

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 0 – 0.0467 | 235 | 4.969 | -3.01 | 59.15 | 26.81 | 0.0 | 14.04 |
| Typical | 0.0467 – 7.29 | 213 | 5.745 | -2.772 | 70.42 | 27.23 | 0.47 | 1.88 |
| Elevated | 7.29 – 22.3 | 99 | 4.433 | -2.795 | 65.66 | 30.3 | 1.01 | 3.03 |