# Falling Wedge

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/falling_wedge/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/falling_wedge.md
Bias: bullish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 4998 | 2.367 | -1.671 | 1.417 | 72.85 | 72.85 | 24.17 | 2.98 |
| 1h | 11553 | 4.842 | -4.021 | 1.204 | 72.31 | 72.31 | 24.69 | 3.0 |
| 4h | 4246 | 12.675 | -7.889 | 1.607 | 71.03 | 71.03 | 26.35 | 2.62 |
| 1d | 705 | 32.412 | -15.612 | 2.076 | 75.18 | 75.18 | 22.55 | 2.27 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 4998 | 555 | 72.85 | 72.85 | 24.17 | 2.98 | 0.335 | 0.373 |
| 1h | 11553 | 662 | 72.31 | 72.31 | 24.69 | 3.0 | 0.72 | 0.459 |
| 4h | 4246 | 622 | 71.03 | 71.03 | 26.35 | 2.62 | 0.777 | 0.438 |
| 1d | 705 | 368 | 75.18 | 75.18 | 22.55 | 2.27 | 1.891 | 4.257 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.5367 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.4363 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.2876 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.2783 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.1895 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.141 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.1234 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0639 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_progress | -0.0571 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.0185 | 0.046832 | 11553 | — |
| geom_width | -0.0135 | 0.147099 | 11553 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.5809 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.4748 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.3145 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.3062 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.2228 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.1652 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.1434 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0545 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_progress | 0.052 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.0413 | 9e-06 | 11553 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0055 | 0.557802 | 11553 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.1168 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.1156 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.1145 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0892 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.0788 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.0683 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_progress | -0.0604 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.0559 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0509 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.0319 | 0.000605 | 11553 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0119 | 0.200361 | 11553 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.3148 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.2791 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.2543 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.1521 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.1253 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1071 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_progress | -0.0619 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0549 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.0548 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.0264 | 0.004572 | 11553 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0129 | 0.165372 | 11553 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.2236 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.204 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.1873 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1793 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.1103 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.1103 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0689 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_progress | -0.0565 | 0.0 | 11553 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0446 | 2e-06 | 11553 | — |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0342 | 0.000239 | 11553 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0169 | 0.069714 | 11553 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 11773 | 4.211 | -4.152 | 63.58 | 23.7 | 2.06 | 10.66 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 8062 | 4.571 | -4.289 | 57.11 | 29.83 | 1.13 | 11.93 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 3897 | 5.102 | -4.34 | 49.83 | 36.95 | 0.31 | 12.91 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 16427 | 3.868 | -4.251 | 63.74 | 23.66 | 1.86 | 10.74 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 7305 | 5.854 | -4.18 | 48.75 | 37.63 | 0.55 | 13.07 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10–30 | 10–30 | 2113 | 6.579 | -3.18 | 44.77 | 37.48 | 0.43 | 17.32 |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 15946 | 4.621 | -4.081 | 61.39 | 29.81 | 1.47 | 7.33 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 5657 | 3.298 | -5.032 | 58.16 | 19.2 | 1.82 | 20.82 |
| 70–90 | 70–90 | 16 | 3.816 | -6.916 | 37.5 | 18.75 | 0.0 | 43.75 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 1.02 – 5.39 | 1822 | 3.122 | -2.956 | 70.97 | 27.28 | 1.75 |
| Typical | 5.39 – 17.9 | 8023 | 4.701 | -4.008 | 72.3 | 24.8 | 2.9 |
| Elevated | 17.9 – 31.4 | 1400 | 6.821 | -4.936 | 73.71 | 22.0 | 4.29 |
| Extreme | 31.4 – 145 | 308 | 9.673 | -6.493 | 74.03 | 18.83 | 7.14 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 19 – 60.8 | 2029 | 4.679 | -3.701 | 72.4 | 24.49 | 3.11 |
| Typical | 60.8 – 135 | 7375 | 4.821 | -4.108 | 72.85 | 24.52 | 2.63 |
| Elevated | 135 – 173 | 1827 | 5.035 | -3.995 | 71.7 | 24.58 | 3.72 |
| Extreme | 173 – 188 | 322 | 5.235 | -4.183 | 62.73 | 30.75 | 6.52 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0154 – 0.104 | 20674 | 4.465 | -4.233 | 58.02 | 27.7 | 1.19 | 13.09 |
| Elevated | 0.104 – 0.17 | 1988 | 4.544 | -4.21 | 68.81 | 27.97 | 3.22 | 0.0 |
| Extreme | 0.17 – 0.746 | 1070 | 4.638 | -4.2 | 62.34 | 32.99 | 3.46 | 1.21 |

### resistance slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.952 – -0.205 | 2889 | 7.046 | -4.32 | 79.58 | 16.41 | 4.01 |
| Q2 | -0.205 – -0.144 | 2888 | 4.969 | -4.364 | 74.2 | 22.75 | 3.05 |
| Q3 | -0.144 – -0.101 | 2888 | 4.072 | -3.835 | 70.46 | 27.04 | 2.5 |
| Q4 | -0.101 – -0.018 | 2888 | 3.28 | -3.565 | 64.99 | 32.58 | 2.43 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -0.841 – -0.132 | 2889 | 6.797 | -4.335 | 80.48 | 15.33 | 4.19 |
| Q2 | -0.132 – -0.0817 | 2888 | 4.902 | -4.057 | 75.07 | 21.78 | 3.15 |
| Q3 | -0.0817 – -0.0483 | 2888 | 4.223 | -3.929 | 69.46 | 27.87 | 2.67 |
| Q4 | -0.0483 – -0.01 | 2888 | 3.444 | -3.762 | 64.23 | 33.8 | 1.97 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -7.34 – -0.402 | 5938 | 4.082 | -4.372 | 61.57 | 20.76 | 1.52 | 16.15 |
| Q2 | -0.402 – 0.0575 | 5928 | 3.894 | -4.173 | 64.69 | 22.93 | 2.14 | 10.24 |
| Q3 | 0.0575 – 0.643 | 5934 | 4.343 | -3.872 | 60.08 | 29.95 | 1.44 | 8.53 |
| Q4 | 0.643 – 11.1 | 5932 | 5.599 | -4.501 | 50.15 | 38.2 | 0.73 | 10.92 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -311 – 0 | 6066 | 5.961 | -3.014 | 49.82 | 37.52 | 0.16 | 12.5 |
| Q2 | 0 – 1 | 11393 | 3.465 | -5.531 | 46.79 | 35.45 | 0.73 | 17.03 |
| Q3 | 1 – 1.02 | 340 | 5.349 | -2.839 | 88.82 | 5.0 | 4.42 | 1.76 |
| Q4 | 1.02 – 1.13e+03 | 5933 | 4.862 | -3.052 | 90.61 | 5.11 | 4.01 | 0.27 |