# Head & Shoulders

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/head_and_shoulders/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/head_and_shoulders.md
Bias: bearish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 2729 | 1.981 | -1.824 | 1.086 | 69.18 | 29.79 | 69.18 | 1.03 |
| 1h | 7489 | 4.094 | -4.205 | 0.974 | 74.04 | 25.16 | 74.04 | 0.8 |
| 4h | 2068 | 9.169 | -9.268 | 0.989 | 74.18 | 24.13 | 74.18 | 1.69 |
| 1d | 310 | 32.867 | -20.025 | 1.641 | 72.26 | 26.13 | 72.26 | 1.61 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 2729 | 549 | 69.18 | 29.79 | 69.18 | 1.03 | 0.051 | 0.068 |
| 1h | 7489 | 649 | 74.04 | 25.16 | 74.04 | 0.8 | -0.103 | 0.015 |
| 4h | 2068 | 530 | 74.18 | 24.13 | 74.18 | 1.69 | -0.791 | -0.109 |
| 1d | 310 | 219 | 72.26 | 26.13 | 72.26 | 1.61 | -3.466 | 5.921 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.2739 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.21 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.1653 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.1569 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0799 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.0501 | 1.4e-05 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_breakout_potential | 0.0416 | 0.000319 | 7489 | — |
| geom_height | -0.0249 | 0.030908 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_symmetry_score | -0.0141 | 0.223175 | 7489 | — |
| geom_width | -0.0135 | 0.24341 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_completion_score | 0.006 | 0.60267 | 7489 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.278 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.2163 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.1701 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.1661 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.0824 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.061 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_breakout_potential | -0.0477 | 3.7e-05 | 7489 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0187 | 0.105884 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_symmetry_score | 0.0182 | 0.114622 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_completion_score | -0.0119 | 0.302751 | 7489 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0104 | 0.367825 | 7489 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.0631 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.0429 | 0.000202 | 7489 | — |
| geom_support_slope | -0.0429 | 0.000206 | 7489 | — |
| momentum_score | 0.0355 | 0.002147 | 7489 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0242 | 0.03615 | 7489 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0239 | 0.038368 | 7489 | — |
| geom_width | -0.0238 | 0.039786 | 7489 | — |
| current_scale_number | -0.0202 | 0.079976 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_symmetry_score | 0.0137 | 0.236853 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_completion_score | -0.011 | 0.34277 | 7489 | — |
| geom_breakout_potential | -0.0069 | 0.550644 | 7489 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| momentum_score | 0.1464 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_breakout_potential | 0.1436 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_hs_completion_score | 0.1428 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.0837 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.055 | 2e-06 | 7489 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.0526 | 5e-06 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.0355 | 0.002121 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_symmetry_score | 0.0208 | 0.071912 | 7489 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0167 | 0.149059 | 7489 | — |
| current_scale_number | -0.0132 | 0.254402 | 7489 | — |
| volume_score | 0.0121 | 0.295599 | 7489 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| geom_hs_completion_score | -0.1574 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_breakout_potential | -0.1414 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.0961 | 0.0 | 7489 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.0497 | 1.7e-05 | 7489 | — |
| geom_width | -0.036 | 0.001857 | 7489 | — |
| geom_support_slope | -0.018 | 0.118574 | 7489 | — |
| current_scale_number | -0.0122 | 0.292349 | 7489 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0062 | 0.59011 | 7489 | — |
| geom_hs_symmetry_score | 0.0055 | 0.633018 | 7489 | — |
| rsi_14 | 0.004 | 0.731848 | 7489 | — |
| volume_score | -0.0017 | 0.881901 | 7489 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 2942 | 4.091 | -4.167 | 33.99 | 64.85 | 1.16 | 0.0 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 2740 | 4.031 | -4.035 | 25.07 | 74.16 | 0.77 | 0.0 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 1807 | 4.193 | -4.523 | 10.9 | 88.82 | 0.28 | 0.0 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 4838 | 3.934 | -3.976 | 29.99 | 69.0 | 1.01 | 0.0 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 2651 | 4.387 | -4.622 | 16.33 | 83.25 | 0.42 | 0.0 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10–30 | 10–30 | 264 | 4.406 | -5.843 | 7.2 | 92.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 6494 | 4.084 | -4.154 | 25.12 | 74.13 | 0.75 | 0.0 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 731 | 4.066 | -4.06 | 32.01 | 66.48 | 1.51 | 0.0 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.409 – 1.79 | 6976 | 4.104 | -4.201 | 25.14 | 74.13 | 0.73 |
| Elevated | 1.79 – 5.05 | 203 | 4.337 | -4.535 | 26.6 | 71.43 | 1.97 |
| Extreme | 5.05 – 2.54e+03 | 310 | 3.722 | -4.061 | 24.52 | 73.87 | 1.61 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 14 – 24.8 | 1041 | 4.242 | -4.043 | 26.8 | 72.33 | 0.87 |
| Typical | 24.8 – 42.7 | 5314 | 4.11 | -4.146 | 25.05 | 74.14 | 0.81 |
| Elevated | 42.7 – 51.7 | 832 | 3.816 | -4.755 | 23.32 | 76.08 | 0.6 |
| Extreme | 51.7 – 88 | 302 | 4.062 | -4.282 | 26.49 | 72.52 | 0.99 |

### breakout potential

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.299 – 0.6 | 3002 | 3.518 | -3.678 | 23.12 | 76.35 | 0.53 |
| Q2 | 0.6 – 0.7 | 2027 | 4.142 | -4.281 | 25.36 | 73.9 | 0.74 |
| Q3 | 0.7 – 0.8 | 1622 | 4.404 | -4.639 | 27.87 | 71.33 | 0.8 |
| Q4 | 0.8 – 1 | 838 | 5.443 | -5.066 | 26.73 | 71.36 | 1.91 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -57.2 – -6.96e-05 | 1873 | 4.366 | -4.492 | 21.41 | 78.32 | 0.27 |
| Q2 | -6.96e-05 – 5e-06 | 1874 | 3.816 | -3.899 | 24.81 | 74.65 | 0.54 |
| Q3 | 5e-06 – 0.000232 | 1870 | 3.999 | -3.983 | 27.97 | 71.12 | 0.91 |
| Q4 | 0.000232 – 56.5 | 1872 | 4.194 | -4.444 | 26.44 | 72.06 | 1.5 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -7.73 – -0.0268 | 1873 | 4.244 | -4.278 | 30.01 | 68.71 | 1.28 | 0.0 |
| Q2 | -0.0268 – 0.382 | 1874 | 3.453 | -3.795 | 25.4 | 74.07 | 0.53 | 0.0 |
| Q3 | 0.382 – 0.954 | 1870 | 3.991 | -4.039 | 25.08 | 74.28 | 0.64 | 0.0 |
| Q4 | 0.954 – 15.6 | 1872 | 4.689 | -4.707 | 20.14 | 79.11 | 0.75 | 0.0 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -53 – -0.273 | 1873 | 4.148 | -4.166 | 9.29 | 90.44 | 0.27 | 0.0 |
| Q2 | -0.273 – -0.122 | 1872 | 4.062 | -4.304 | 19.71 | 79.7 | 0.59 | 0.0 |
| Q3 | -0.122 – -0.0469 | 1872 | 4.192 | -4.251 | 31.73 | 66.93 | 1.34 | 0.0 |
| Q4 | -0.0469 – 0 | 1872 | 3.975 | -4.098 | 39.9 | 59.08 | 1.02 | 0.0 |

### hs completion score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.199 – 0.85 | 1890 | 3.288 | -3.312 | 25.08 | 74.34 | 0.58 |
| Q2 | 0.85 – 0.9 | 2332 | 4.025 | -4.144 | 24.79 | 74.7 | 0.51 |
| Q3 | 0.9 – 1 | 3267 | 4.61 | -4.764 | 25.47 | 73.4 | 1.13 |