# Rising Wedge

Source: https://chartdatabase.com/research/rising_wedge/
Markdown: https://chartdatabase.com/research/rising_wedge.md
Bias: bearish.
Each candle timeframe is a separate sample. The HTML page opens on 1h. Correlation, Fuel, and feature-bin tables below are for that default timeframe. The comparison tables list every timeframe.

## Timeframe comparison

| TF | n | Mean up | Mean down | Up/|Down| | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 2880 | 1.972 | -2.193 | 0.899 | 73.85 | 24.41 | 73.85 | 1.74 |
| 1h | 7901 | 3.671 | -4.414 | 0.832 | 73.07 | 25.41 | 73.07 | 1.52 |
| 4h | 1503 | 10.509 | -8.715 | 1.206 | 66.0 | 32.8 | 66.0 | 1.2 |
| 1d | 54 | 55.663 | -16.67 | 3.339 | 50.0 | 48.15 | 50.0 | 1.85 |

## Timeframe breakdown

| TF | n | Coins | Hit % | BO % | BD % | SW % | Med % | Mean % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 15m | 2880 | 541 | 73.85 | 24.41 | 73.85 | 1.74 | -0.457 | -0.272 |
| 1h | 7901 | 631 | 73.07 | 25.41 | 73.07 | 1.52 | -0.83 | -0.484 |
| 4h | 1503 | 436 | 66.0 | 32.8 | 66.0 | 1.2 | -0.712 | 0.852 |
| 1d | 54 | 50 | 50.0 | 48.15 | 50.0 | 1.85 | 1.379 | 23.505 |

## Feature correlations (1h)

Spearman rank, within this pattern and timeframe. sig marks p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

### Breakout success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.6073 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.5118 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.3001 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.1975 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.1609 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.1259 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.1126 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.0512 | 5e-06 | 7901 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0363 | 0.001245 | 7901 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0311 | 0.005728 | 7901 | — |
| geom_width | 0.0075 | 0.502419 | 7901 | — |

### Breakdown success

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | -0.5889 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| rsi_14 | -0.4954 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| momentum_score | -0.2936 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| volume_score | -0.1854 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | 0.1616 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.1197 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.104 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0496 | 1e-05 | 7901 | — |
| extension_progress | -0.0453 | 5.5e-05 | 7901 | — |
| geom_height | 0.0409 | 0.000279 | 7901 | — |
| geom_width | -0.008 | 0.475535 | 7901 | — |

### Close return

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.1384 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.122 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.1117 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | -0.0979 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.0822 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.0565 | 1e-06 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.0501 | 8e-06 | 7901 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.0476 | 2.3e-05 | 7901 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0407 | 0.000292 | 7901 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0149 | 0.185626 | 7901 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | -0.0114 | 0.312635 | 7901 | — |

### Max-up (MFE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| current_scale_number | 0.2464 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.2165 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| momentum_score | 0.1957 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_support_slope | 0.1129 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_height | 0.1019 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.0932 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | 0.0792 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.0355 | 0.001616 | 7901 | — |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0335 | 0.002938 | 7901 | — |
| extension_progress | 0.0284 | 0.011461 | 7901 | — |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0114 | 0.309816 | 7901 | — |

### Max-down (MAE)

| Feature | rho | p | n | sig |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| geom_support_slope | -0.3248 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_height | -0.3197 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_resistance_slope | -0.2647 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| rsi_14 | 0.1493 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| current_scale_number | 0.1339 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| geom_width | -0.0668 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| extension_progress | 0.0612 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| volume_score | 0.0571 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| btc_dist14_mean | -0.0568 | 0.0 | 7901 | *** |
| extension_candle_offset | 0.0252 | 0.024897 | 7901 | — |
| momentum_score | -0.0236 | 0.035847 | 7901 | — |

## Fuel zones (1h)

### volume score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dead Water | 0.00–0.33 | 7885 | 3.87 | -4.012 | 24.02 | 67.93 | 0.91 | 7.14 |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 6129 | 3.748 | -4.138 | 30.1 | 61.2 | 0.64 | 8.06 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 2603 | 3.763 | -4.633 | 34.5 | 55.74 | 0.35 | 9.41 |

### momentum score

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Organic Flow | 0.34–0.66 | 11943 | 3.835 | -3.713 | 24.47 | 67.73 | 0.89 | 6.91 |
| The Powder Keg | 0.67–1.00 | 4674 | 3.739 | -5.287 | 36.69 | 52.82 | 0.28 | 10.21 |

## Feature bins (1h)

### rsi 14

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30–50 | 30–50 | 4387 | 4.269 | -3.29 | 19.19 | 66.81 | 0.73 | 13.27 |
| 50–70 | 50–70 | 11298 | 3.719 | -4.388 | 30.84 | 63.16 | 0.76 | 5.24 |
| 70–90 | 70–90 | 925 | 2.702 | -5.447 | 33.41 | 52.86 | 0.22 | 13.51 |

### height

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 1.07 – 4.76 | 1255 | 2.62 | -2.807 | 28.13 | 70.6 | 1.27 |
| Typical | 4.76 – 18.7 | 5425 | 3.628 | -4.344 | 25.57 | 73.09 | 1.34 |
| Elevated | 18.7 – 35.4 | 985 | 4.574 | -6.03 | 22.74 | 75.13 | 2.13 |
| Extreme | 35.4 – 282 | 236 | 6.502 | -7.803 | 18.64 | 77.12 | 4.24 |

### width

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Below typical | 18 – 58.9 | 1384 | 3.863 | -4.187 | 23.19 | 75.36 | 1.45 |
| Typical | 58.9 – 132 | 5074 | 3.649 | -4.384 | 25.66 | 72.78 | 1.56 |
| Elevated | 132 – 169 | 1199 | 3.497 | -4.769 | 26.52 | 72.06 | 1.42 |
| Extreme | 169 – 187 | 244 | 3.912 | -4.564 | 27.46 | 70.9 | 1.64 |

### Formation age

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Typical | -0.0136 – 0.104 | 14506 | 3.837 | -4.152 | 28.05 | 62.56 | 0.48 | 8.91 |
| Elevated | 0.104 – 0.168 | 1361 | 3.598 | -4.225 | 26.01 | 71.64 | 2.35 | 0.0 |
| Extreme | 0.168 – 0.75 | 750 | 3.624 | -4.107 | 28.53 | 67.73 | 2.41 | 1.33 |

### resistance slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.0002 – 0.0371 | 1976 | 3.113 | -3.346 | 33.76 | 64.63 | 1.61 |
| Q2 | 0.0371 – 0.0677 | 1975 | 3.312 | -3.986 | 25.52 | 73.37 | 1.11 |
| Q3 | 0.0677 – 0.112 | 1975 | 4.015 | -4.469 | 23.24 | 75.24 | 1.52 |
| Q4 | 0.112 – 1.13 | 1975 | 4.247 | -5.853 | 19.14 | 79.04 | 1.82 |

### support slope

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | 0.01 – 0.0973 | 1976 | 2.77 | -3.054 | 31.88 | 66.6 | 1.52 |
| Q2 | 0.0973 – 0.15 | 1975 | 3.443 | -3.914 | 27.14 | 71.75 | 1.11 |
| Q3 | 0.15 – 0.225 | 1975 | 3.877 | -4.574 | 23.04 | 75.85 | 1.11 |
| Q4 | 0.225 – 4.45 | 1975 | 4.596 | -6.113 | 19.59 | 78.08 | 2.33 |

### btc mean

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -8.8 – -0.593 | 4156 | 3.558 | -4.747 | 32.0 | 59.6 | 0.68 | 7.72 |
| Q2 | -0.593 – -0.1 | 4153 | 3.548 | -4.095 | 26.56 | 65.04 | 0.98 | 7.42 |
| Q3 | -0.1 – 0.256 | 4154 | 3.525 | -3.759 | 27.18 | 65.82 | 0.67 | 6.33 |
| Q4 | 0.256 – 7.37 | 4154 | 4.6 | -4.023 | 25.88 | 63.7 | 0.55 | 9.87 |

### Pattern scale

| Bin | Range | n | Mean up | Mean down | BO % | BD % | SW % | FM % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 | -461 – -5.17e-15 | 4155 | 2.803 | -4.307 | 6.91 | 90.37 | 1.71 | 1.01 |
| Q2 | -5.17e-15 – 0.0297 | 4154 | 5.693 | -2.439 | 35.92 | 46.08 | 0.09 | 17.91 |
| Q3 | 0.0297 – 1 | 7444 | 3.045 | -5.195 | 27.35 | 65.19 | 0.54 | 6.92 |
| Q4 | 1 – 29 | 864 | 6.154 | -2.729 | 95.14 | 4.17 | 0.57 | 0.12 |