Bitcoin Radar · 200-week SMA · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin 200-week SMA: Above 4x Bearish
First daily close with price at or above 4x the 200-week SMA. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 17 Jun 2015.
- Current Close / 200-week SMA
- 1.16x
- Median next 1 week
- +9.1%
- Median next 1 month
- +17.7%
- Median next 3 months
- +61.1%
- Occurrences
- 9
About this signal
Above 4x is a bearish 200-week SMA signal: First daily close with price at or above 4x the 200-week SMA.
The 200-week moving average, computed here as the 1400-day SMA of daily closes, has acted as Bitcoin's long-term floor: the price has only briefly closed below it at major cycle lows.
Formula. SMA(1400 days) = mean of the last 1400 daily closes (200 weeks). Ratio = Close / SMA(1400).
"Above 4x" is a bearish 200-week SMA signal: First daily close with price at or above 4x the 200-week SMA. On the 9 occasions it first turned on since 22 May 2017, the median return over the next 30 days was +17.7% (mean +16.1%, 78% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of +14.8%. The 1-week median was +9.1% (78% positive) and the 3-month median +61.1% (67% positive).
Forward returns after "Above 4x"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 9 | +9.1% | +8.9% | 78% | +30.9% | -11.4% | +0.7% | +8.4% |
| 1 month | 9 | +17.7% | +16.1% | 78% | +42.6% | -11.9% | +2.9% | +14.8% |
| 3 months | 9 | +61.1% | +45.6% | 67% | +98.9% | -35.8% | +10.3% | +50.8% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2021 | $65,990 | -11.4% | -11.9% | -35.8% |
| 02 Feb 2021 | $35,522 | +30.9% | +36.1% | +61.1% |
| 29 Jan 2021 | $34,250 | +11.9% | +32.1% | +56.5% |
| 02 Jan 2021 | $32,217 | +24.9% | +4.1% | +83.1% |
| 20 Apr 2018 | $8,861 | +0.7% | -3.9% | -15.7% |
| 15 Apr 2018 | $8,354 | +5.2% | +1.4% | -25.3% |
| 20 Jul 2017 | $2,875 | -7.3% | +42.6% | +94.2% |
| 28 May 2017 | $2,179 | +16.1% | +17.7% | +98.9% |
| 22 May 2017 | $2,100 | +9.1% | +26.5% | +93.3% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.