Bitcoin Radar daily briefing · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin indicators today
Every tracked indicator's latest closed-candle reading and active signal after the 01 Nov 2026 Bitcoin close ($78,233). Numbers are the historical median 1-week, 1-month and 3-month Bitcoin return after that same signal since 18 Aug 2011.
- As of
- 01 Nov 2026 close
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Bullish
- 8
- Bearish
- 5
- Active signals
- 32
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close ($78,233), 8 of 32 tracked indicators show a conventionally bullish signal on Bitcoin and 5 show a bearish one. Across all 5,490 daily closes since 18 Aug 2011, Bitcoin's unconditional median 1-month return has been +2.9% (mean +9.0%) with 57% of months positive. The active signal with the largest positive historical 1-month median edge is Pi Cycle Top: Ratio below 0.8 (median +13.9%, mean +19.6% over n=5 occurrences, +11.0% versus baseline). The largest negative median edge is ATR: NATR in bottom 20% of the past year (median -0.6%, mean +1.6% over n=99, -3.5% versus baseline).
Active signals as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Only indicators currently sitting in a tracked zone or event. The full table of every indicator, including those with no active signal, is on the Bitcoin Radar hub.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSIMomentum · RSI(14) | 39.6 | RSI between 30 and 50 | -0.1% | +0.9% | +7.0% |
| MACDMomentum · MACD histogram | -453.3 | Histogram negative | +0.7% | +3.5% | +7.8% |
| StochasticMomentum · %K | 16.7 | %K below 20 (oversold) | +0.1% | +2.7% | +3.6% |
| CCIMomentum · CCI(20) | -137.7 | CCI below -100 | +0.6% | +2.9% | +2.8% |
| Williams %RMomentum · %R(14) | -76.2 | %R mid-range (-80 to -20) | +1.1% | +3.1% | +9.7% |
| Stoch RSIMomentum · %K | 9.7 | %K below 20 | +1.0% | +2.0% | +9.7% |
| ROC 30Momentum · 30-day ROC | -7.4% | Down 5% to 20% | -0.1% | -0.5% | +0.2% |
| Golden / Death CrossTrend · SMA50 vs SMA200 | +12.0% | SMA 50 above SMA 200 | -3.0% | +3.7% | +13.5% |
| IchimokuTrend · Close vs cloud top | -5.8% | Close inside the cloud | +0.4% | +0.5% | +4.4% |
| 200-day SMATrend · Close vs SMA 200 | +7.0% | Close above the 200-day SMA | +0.6% | -0.4% | +11.4% |
| SupertrendTrend · Direction | Bearish | Supertrend bearish | +2.2% | +3.7% | +0.3% |
| ADXTrend · ADX(14) | 20.8 | ADX 20 to 25 | -0.1% | +3.4% | +11.2% |
| Parabolic SARTrend · Direction | Bearish | SAR above price (short) | +0.4% | +0.9% | +8.0% |
| EMA RibbonTrend · Ribbon score | Fully bullish | Ribbon fully bullish | +3.0% | +3.2% | +21.9% |
| AroonTrend · Aroon oscillator | -92.0 | Down above 70 and Up below 30 | -0.6% | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| BollingerVolatility · %B | 0.15 | Close inside the bands | +1.6% | +4.0% | +12.9% |
| ATRVolatility · NATR(14) % | 2.50 | NATR in bottom 20% of the past year | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| KeltnerVolatility · Channel position | 0.22 | Close inside the channel | +1.7% | +3.2% | +17.7% |
| DonchianVolatility · Channel position | 0.24 | Inside the channel | +1.8% | +4.0% | +13.5% |
| YTD VWAPVolume · Close vs YTD VWAP | +6.0% | Close above YTD VWAP | -1.0% | +1.3% | +8.2% |
| OBVVolume · OBV vs 30-day SMA | -0.4% | OBV below its 30-day SMA | +0.7% | +2.2% | +4.2% |
| MFIVolume · MFI(14) | 40.6 | MFI mid-range (20-80) | +2.0% | +1.5% | +5.6% |
| CMFVolume · CMF(20) | 0.01 | CMF between -0.10 and +0.10 | +0.6% | +0.3% | +3.5% |
| Volume ratioVolume · Volume / SMA 20 | 0.43x | Volume below 0.5x average | +0.7% | +2.4% | +9.4% |
| Pi Cycle TopBitcoin cycle · SMA111 / (2 x SMA350) | 0.50x | Ratio below 0.8 | -1.7% | +13.9% | +17.5% |
| Mayer MultipleBitcoin cycle · Mayer Multiple | 1.07x | Between 1.0 and 1.5 | +0.5% | -0.5% | +5.9% |
| 200-week SMABitcoin cycle · Close / 200-week SMA | 1.16x | Between 1x and 2x | +1.0% | +0.5% | -1.0% |
| Rainbow ChartBitcoin cycle · Close / rainbow model | 0.52x | BUY! (band 1) | +1.2% | +8.6% | +29.7% |
| Halving cycleBitcoin cycle · Months since halving | 30.4 | 24 to 36 months after halving | +2.4% | -0.1% | -15.8% |
| Month of yearBitcoin cycle · Month | November | Close in November | +1.0% | +9.2% | +21.2% |
| Day of weekBitcoin cycle · Weekday | Sunday | Sunday close | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Fear & GreedSentiment · Fear & Greed | 34 | Fear (26-45) | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.8% |
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.