Bitcoin Radar · updated daily from closed candles
What happened to Bitcoin after each indicator signal
Median 1-week, 1-month and 3-month returns for 32 popular indicators, measured on every Bitcoin daily close since 18 Aug 2011. Each row shows the indicator's latest reading, the signal it is in now, and how Bitcoin behaved historically after that signal. Means are on hover because the average is pulled by fat tails.
- As of
- 01 Nov 2026 close
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Bullish signals
- 8
- Bearish signals
- 5
- Daily closes
- 5555
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close ($78,233), 8 of 32 tracked indicators show a conventionally bullish signal on Bitcoin and 5 show a bearish one. Across all 5,490 daily closes since 18 Aug 2011, Bitcoin's unconditional median 1-month return has been +2.9% (mean +9.0%) with 57% of months positive. The active signal with the largest positive historical 1-month median edge is Pi Cycle Top: Ratio below 0.8 (median +13.9%, mean +19.6% over n=5 occurrences, +11.0% versus baseline). The largest negative median edge is ATR: NATR in bottom 20% of the past year (median -0.6%, mean +1.6% over n=99, -3.5% versus baseline).
Momentum Oscillators that measure the speed of Bitcoin price changes.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSIRSI(14) | 39.6 | RSI between 30 and 50 | -0.1% | +0.9% | +7.0% |
| MACDMACD histogram | -453.3 | Histogram negative | +0.7% | +3.5% | +7.8% |
| Stochastic%K | 16.7 | %K below 20 (oversold) | +0.1% | +2.7% | +3.6% |
| CCICCI(20) | -137.7 | CCI below -100 | +0.6% | +2.9% | +2.8% |
| Williams %R%R(14) | -76.2 | %R mid-range (-80 to -20) | +1.1% | +3.1% | +9.7% |
| Stoch RSI%K | 9.7 | %K below 20 | +1.0% | +2.0% | +9.7% |
| ROC 3030-day ROC | -7.4% | Down 5% to 20% | -0.1% | -0.5% | +0.2% |
Trend Moving averages and trend-following systems.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden / Death CrossSMA50 vs SMA200 | +12.0% | SMA 50 above SMA 200 | -3.0% | +3.7% | +13.5% |
| IchimokuClose vs cloud top | -5.8% | Close inside the cloud | +0.4% | +0.5% | +4.4% |
| 200-day SMAClose vs SMA 200 | +7.0% | Close above the 200-day SMA | +0.6% | -0.4% | +11.4% |
| SupertrendDirection | Bearish | Supertrend bearish | +2.2% | +3.7% | +0.3% |
| ADXADX(14) | 20.8 | ADX 20 to 25 | -0.1% | +3.4% | +11.2% |
| Parabolic SARDirection | Bearish | SAR above price (short) | +0.4% | +0.9% | +8.0% |
| EMA RibbonRibbon score | Fully bullish | Ribbon fully bullish | +3.0% | +3.2% | +21.9% |
| AroonAroon oscillator | -92.0 | Down above 70 and Up below 30 | -0.6% | +1.3% | +2.9% |
Volatility Bands and ranges that describe how much Bitcoin is moving.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger%B | 0.15 | Close inside the bands | +1.6% | +4.0% | +12.9% |
| ATRNATR(14) % | 2.50 | NATR in bottom 20% of the past year | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| KeltnerChannel position | 0.22 | Close inside the channel | +1.7% | +3.2% | +17.7% |
| DonchianChannel position | 0.24 | Inside the channel | +1.8% | +4.0% | +13.5% |
Volume Indicators built from traded volume.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD VWAPClose vs YTD VWAP | +6.0% | Close above YTD VWAP | -1.0% | +1.3% | +8.2% |
| OBVOBV vs 30-day SMA | -0.4% | OBV below its 30-day SMA | +0.7% | +2.2% | +4.2% |
| MFIMFI(14) | 40.6 | MFI mid-range (20-80) | +2.0% | +1.5% | +5.6% |
| CMFCMF(20) | 0.01 | CMF between -0.10 and +0.10 | +0.6% | +0.3% | +3.5% |
| Volume ratioVolume / SMA 20 | 0.43x | Volume below 0.5x average | +0.7% | +2.4% | +9.4% |
Bitcoin cycle Long-horizon, Bitcoin-specific valuation and cycle models.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pi Cycle TopSMA111 / (2 x SMA350) | 0.50x | Ratio below 0.8 | -1.7% | +13.9% | +17.5% |
| Mayer MultipleMayer Multiple | 1.07x | Between 1.0 and 1.5 | +0.5% | -0.5% | +5.9% |
| 200-week SMAClose / 200-week SMA | 1.16x | Between 1x and 2x | +1.0% | +0.5% | -1.0% |
| Rainbow ChartClose / rainbow model | 0.52x | BUY! (band 1) | +1.2% | +8.6% | +29.7% |
| Halving cycleMonths since halving | 30.4 | 24 to 36 months after halving | +2.4% | -0.1% | -15.8% |
| Month of yearMonth | November | Close in November | +1.0% | +9.2% | +21.2% |
| Day of weekWeekday | Sunday | Sunday close | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Sentiment Crowd positioning and emotion gauges.
| Indicator | Latest value | Active signal | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & GreedFear & Greed | 34 | Fear (26-45) | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.8% |
Baseline: Bitcoin without any signal
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 5513 | +0.7% | +1.8% | 55% |
| 1 month | 5490 | +2.9% | +9.0% | 57% |
| 3 months | 5430 | +10.0% | +35.9% | 60% |
All indicator pages
Today's briefing lists only the signals that are active on this close.
- Bitcoin RSI 14-day Wilder RSI of Bitcoin daily closes: oversold below 30, overbought above 70.
- Bitcoin MACD 12/26/9 MACD on daily closes: line versus signal crosses and histogram sign.
- Bitcoin Stochastic Slow stochastic (14, 3, 3): %K position and %K/%D crosses.
- Bitcoin CCI CCI(20) extremes beyond +100 / -100 and re-entries.
- Bitcoin Williams %R Williams %R(14) oversold below -80 and overbought above -20.
- Bitcoin Stoch RSI Stochastic RSI (14, 14, 3, 3): %K extremes and crosses.
- Bitcoin ROC 30 30-day percent change of the Bitcoin close, bucketed.
- Bitcoin Golden / Death Cross 50-day SMA versus 200-day SMA: golden cross, death cross, and the first close after SMA 50 moves above or below SMA 200.
- Bitcoin Ichimoku Ichimoku (9, 26, 52) with the cloud evaluated at the current bar: price versus cloud and Tenkan/Kijun crosses.
- Bitcoin 200-day SMA Bitcoin close relative to its 200-day simple moving average.
- Bitcoin Supertrend Supertrend (ATR 10, multiplier 3) direction and flips on the daily chart.
- Bitcoin ADX ADX(14) trend strength combined with +DI/-DI direction.
- Bitcoin Parabolic SAR Parabolic SAR (0.02 step, 0.20 max) direction and reversals.
- Bitcoin EMA Ribbon Alignment of the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs.
- Bitcoin Aroon Aroon Up / Down (25) trend identification.
- Bitcoin Bollinger 20-day, 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands: band touches and squeezes.
- Bitcoin ATR Normalised ATR(14) as a percent of price, and its 1-year percentile.
- Bitcoin Keltner Keltner Channels (EMA 20, 2 x ATR 10) breaks above and below.
- Bitcoin Donchian 20-day Donchian channel breakouts and breakdowns.
- Bitcoin YTD VWAP Volume-weighted average price anchored at the first day of each calendar year.
- Bitcoin OBV OBV relative to its 30-day average and 30-day extremes.
- Bitcoin MFI Volume-weighted RSI, MFI(14): below 20 oversold, above 80 overbought.
- Bitcoin CMF CMF(20) accumulation above +0.10 and distribution below -0.10.
- Bitcoin Volume ratio Daily volume relative to its 20-day simple average: spikes and dry-ups.
- Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top 111-day SMA versus 2 x 350-day SMA: the Pi Cycle Top cross and its proximity.
- Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Close divided by the 200-day SMA, bucketed into classic Mayer zones.
- Bitcoin 200-week SMA Close relative to the 200-week (1400-day) simple moving average, the classic Bitcoin floor model.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Nine logarithmic-regression valuation bands, from fire sale (band 0) to maximum bubble (band 8).
- Bitcoin Halving cycle Months since the most recent Bitcoin block-reward halving.
- Bitcoin Month of year Forward returns after the first daily close of each calendar month.
- Bitcoin Day of week Close-to-close return realised on each weekday.
- Bitcoin Fear & Greed alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index (0-100) matched to Bitcoin daily closes since 2018.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated? Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since 18 Aug 2011. For each daily close where a signal condition was true we record the close 7, 30 and 90 days later and compute close-to-close returns, then average them and compare with the unconditional baseline.
Why is there no live intraday value? The statistics are built from closed daily candles. An intraday reading would not be comparable with them, so every page shows the latest closed-candle reading and refreshes once per day.
Can I cite or reference these statistics? Yes, research summaries and charts may be cited with attribution to chartdatabase.com.