Bitcoin Radar · Volume · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin OBV: -0.4% OBV below its 30-day SMA
OBV relative to its 30-day average and 30-day extremes. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every OBV trigger signal since 16 Sep 2011.
- OBV vs 30-day SMA
- -0.4%
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- OBV below its 30-day SMA
- Median next 1 week
- +0.7%
- Median next 1 month
- +2.2%
- Median next 3 months
- +4.2%
What is the On-Balance Volume (OBV)?
On-Balance Volume adds the day's volume when the close rises and subtracts it when the close falls, producing a running total that is meant to lead price.
Formula. OBV(t) = OBV(t-1) + Volume if Close > Previous Close; - Volume if Close < Previous Close; unchanged otherwise.
How to read it
- OBV above its 30-day average: volume is flowing in.
- OBV making new 30-day highs while price does not is a bullish divergence.
- OBV falling to new lows signals distribution.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitstamp volume is a single-exchange sample, so OBV here reflects one venue. It remains the longest continuous BTC/USD volume series available.
Signals tracked on this page
- OBV above its 30-day SMA Bullish First daily close with OBV moving above its 30-day SMA.
- OBV below its 30-day SMA Bearish First daily close with OBV moving below its 30-day SMA.
- OBV at a 30-day high Bullish First daily close where OBV exceeds its prior 30-day high.
- OBV at a 30-day low Bearish First daily close where OBV falls under its prior 30-day low.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's On-Balance Volume (OBV) reads -0.4%, which is the "OBV below its 30-day SMA" signal. Since 16 Sep 2011, across 262 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +2.2% (mean +4.9%, 54% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +0.7% and over 3 months +4.2%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each OBV trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBV above its 30-day SMA Bullish | First daily close with OBV moving above its 30-day SMA. | +0.8% | +2.2% | +6.2% |
| OBV below its 30-day SMA active Bearish | First daily close with OBV moving below its 30-day SMA. | +0.7% | +2.2% | +4.2% |
| OBV at a 30-day high Bullish | First daily close where OBV exceeds its prior 30-day high. | +1.8% | +6.5% | +27.8% |
| OBV at a 30-day low Bearish | First daily close where OBV falls under its prior 30-day low. | +0.2% | +0.8% | +7.6% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with OBV (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "OBV below its 30-day SMA"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 262 | +0.7% | +1.0% | 54% | +67.2% | -40.8% | +0.7% | -0.0% |
| 1 month | 262 | +2.2% | +4.9% | 54% | +183.6% | -48.6% | +2.9% | -0.7% |
| 3 months | 257 | +4.2% | +17.6% | 56% | +604.9% | -45.7% | +10.3% | -6.1% |
Most recent "OBV below its 30-day SMA" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | $84,383 | +0.6% | -4.3% | pending |
| 15 Sep 2026 | $75,577 | +14.1% | +8.7% | pending |
| 13 Sep 2026 | $76,809 | +5.7% | +8.2% | pending |
| 10 Sep 2026 | $76,529 | -0.2% | +8.4% | pending |
| 11 Aug 2026 | $63,543 | +1.8% | +20.4% | pending |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $63,698 | -0.4% | +24.1% | +25.7% |
| 26 May 2026 | $75,821 | -12.1% | -21.3% | +4.2% |
| 18 May 2026 | $76,949 | +0.4% | -16.3% | -18.3% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | $74,184 | +2.9% | +9.3% | -16.1% |
| 12 Apr 2026 | $70,746 | +4.4% | +13.8% | -9.8% |
| 02 Apr 2026 | $66,890 | +7.4% | +17.6% | -10.4% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | $65,954 | +4.6% | +15.7% | -9.1% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.