Bitcoin Radar · ROC 30 · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin ROC 30: Down more than 20% in 30 days Bullish
First daily close with 30-day ROC at or below -20%. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 17 Sep 2011.
- Current 30-day ROC
- -7.4%
- Median next 1 week
- +0.6%
- Median next 1 month
- +1.8%
- Median next 3 months
- -2.1%
- Occurrences
- 90
About this signal
Down more than 20% in 30 days is a bullish ROC 30 signal: First daily close with 30-day ROC at or below -20%.
Rate of Change is simply the percentage change of the close over the last 30 days. Bucketing it turns momentum into regimes.
Formula. ROC = 100 x (Close / Close 30 days ago - 1).
"Down more than 20% in 30 days" is a bullish ROC 30 signal: First daily close with 30-day ROC at or below -20%. On the 90 occasions it first turned on since 17 Sep 2011, the median return over the next 30 days was +1.8% (mean +5.1%, 56% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of -1.1%. The 1-week median was +0.6% (54% positive) and the 3-month median -2.1% (47% positive).
Forward returns after "Down more than 20% in 30 days"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 90 | +0.6% | +0.6% | 54% | +43.4% | -32.5% | +0.7% | -0.2% |
| 1 month | 90 | +1.8% | +5.1% | 56% | +116.7% | -37.6% | +2.9% | -1.1% |
| 3 months | 90 | -2.1% | +18.7% | 47% | +604.9% | -47.6% | +10.3% | -12.4% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,526 | +8.2% | +10.6% | +42.6% |
| 24 Jun 2026 | $60,987 | -1.7% | +5.1% | +41.3% |
| 13 Jun 2026 | $64,440 | -0.3% | -3.4% | +19.8% |
| 04 Jun 2026 | $63,815 | -0.4% | -1.1% | +21.1% |
| 04 Feb 2026 | $73,000 | -8.1% | -6.7% | +10.8% |
| 01 Dec 2025 | $86,291 | +5.1% | +1.4% | -23.8% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | $86,527 | +5.5% | +2.1% | -23.2% |
| 05 Jul 2024 | $56,632 | +2.2% | +2.7% | +7.3% |
| 05 Dec 2022 | $16,968 | +1.4% | -0.7% | +32.2% |
| 27 Nov 2022 | $16,424 | +4.2% | +1.7% | +41.0% |
| 25 Nov 2022 | $16,508 | +3.6% | +1.9% | +45.0% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $22,450 | -8.4% | -9.9% | -2.7% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.