Bitcoin Radar · Volume ratio · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Volume ratio: Volume below 0.5x average Neutral active now
First daily close with volume under 0.5x its 20-day average. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 06 Sep 2011.
- Current Volume / SMA 20
- 0.43x
- Median next 1 week
- +0.7%
- Median next 1 month
- +2.4%
- Median next 3 months
- +9.4%
- Occurrences
- 605
About this signal
Volume below 0.5x average is a neutral Volume ratio signal: First daily close with volume under 0.5x its 20-day average.
Volume relative to its 20-day average identifies climactic days (spikes) and quiet days (dry-ups). Volume is Bitstamp BTC/USD spot volume.
Formula. Volume ratio = Volume / SMA(Volume, 20).
"Volume below 0.5x average" is a neutral Volume ratio signal: First daily close with volume under 0.5x its 20-day average. On the 602 occasions it first turned on since 07 Sep 2011, the median return over the next 30 days was +2.4% (mean +9.1%, 56% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of -0.6%. The 1-week median was +0.7% (54% positive) and the 3-month median +9.4% (58% positive). This signal is active as of the 01 Nov 2026 close.
Forward returns after "Volume below 0.5x average"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 605 | +0.7% | +1.4% | 54% | +74.0% | -44.0% | +0.7% | -0.1% |
| 1 month | 602 | +2.4% | +9.1% | 56% | +405.6% | -55.0% | +2.9% | -0.6% |
| 3 months | 597 | +9.4% | +32.7% | 58% | +972.2% | -64.9% | +10.3% | -0.9% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | $78,233 | pending | pending | pending |
| 17 Oct 2026 | $81,385 | -0.8% | pending | pending |
| 10 Oct 2026 | $82,923 | -1.9% | pending | pending |
| 03 Oct 2026 | $84,747 | -2.2% | pending | pending |
| 26 Sep 2026 | $84,433 | +0.4% | -5.2% | pending |
| 12 Sep 2026 | $77,269 | +5.1% | +5.8% | pending |
| 05 Sep 2026 | $79,830 | -3.2% | +7.4% | pending |
| 29 Aug 2026 | $78,235 | +2.0% | +6.7% | pending |
| 15 Aug 2026 | $63,026 | +22.3% | +24.1% | pending |
| 01 Aug 2026 | $62,760 | +3.4% | +25.2% | +23.0% |
| 25 Jul 2026 | $64,308 | -2.4% | +22.8% | +26.1% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | $64,792 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +25.8% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.