Bitcoin Radar · YTD VWAP · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin YTD VWAP: Close crosses below VWAP Bearish
Close loses the anchored VWAP. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 18 Aug 2011.
- Current Close vs YTD VWAP
- +6.0%
- Median next 1 week
- -1.1%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.1%
- Median next 3 months
- +7.9%
- Occurrences
- 99
About this signal
Close crosses below VWAP is a bearish YTD VWAP signal: Close loses the anchored VWAP.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average price since a chosen anchor, here the first day of each calendar year. It approximates the average entry price of everyone who traded during the year.
Formula. VWAP = cumulative sum(Typical Price x Volume) / cumulative sum(Volume) since 1 January; Typical Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3.
"Close crosses below VWAP" is a bearish YTD VWAP signal: Close loses the anchored VWAP. On the 99 occasions it first turned on since 24 Aug 2011, the median return over the next 30 days was -0.1% (mean -0.7%, 49% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of -3.1%. The 1-week median was -1.1% (40% positive) and the 3-month median +7.9% (56% positive).
Forward returns after "Close crosses below VWAP"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 99 | -1.1% | -2.1% | 40% | +22.6% | -41.9% | +0.7% | -1.9% |
| 1 month | 99 | -0.1% | -0.7% | 49% | +81.5% | -49.4% | +2.9% | -3.1% |
| 3 months | 99 | +7.9% | +15.3% | 56% | +192.1% | -75.3% | +10.3% | -2.4% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | $74,330 | -13.8% | -19.3% | +5.7% |
| 19 Apr 2026 | $73,825 | +6.5% | +4.0% | -12.2% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | $74,184 | +2.9% | +9.3% | -16.1% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | $92,560 | -4.7% | -28.2% | -20.2% |
| 07 Jan 2026 | $91,273 | +6.2% | -22.7% | -21.2% |
| 11 Nov 2025 | $103,015 | -9.8% | -10.2% | -32.0% |
| 08 Nov 2025 | $102,286 | -6.6% | -11.4% | -31.0% |
| 06 Nov 2025 | $101,284 | -1.6% | -11.9% | -27.9% |
| 04 Nov 2025 | $101,466 | +1.5% | -9.2% | -22.5% |
| 04 Feb 2025 | $97,786 | -2.1% | -8.0% | -3.1% |
| 01 Feb 2025 | $100,638 | -4.1% | -14.4% | -3.7% |
| 07 Jan 2025 | $96,946 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -18.4% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.