Bitcoin Radar · 200-day SMA · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin 200-day SMA: More than 20% above Bearish
First daily close more than 20% above SMA(200). Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 04 Mar 2012.
- Current Close vs SMA 200
- +7.0%
- Median next 1 week
- -0.1%
- Median next 1 month
- +4.1%
- Median next 3 months
- +17.6%
- Occurrences
- 75
About this signal
More than 20% above is a bearish 200-day SMA signal: First daily close more than 20% above SMA(200).
The 200-day simple moving average is the most cited long-term trend line in finance. It is the mean of the last 200 daily closes.
Formula. SMA(200) = mean of the last 200 daily closes. Value = Close / SMA(200) - 1 in percent.
"More than 20% above" is a bearish 200-day SMA signal: First daily close more than 20% above SMA(200). On the 74 occasions it first turned on since 15 Jun 2012, the median return over the next 30 days was +4.1% (mean +8.6%, 62% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of +1.2%. The 1-week median was -0.1% (47% positive) and the 3-month median +17.6% (71% positive).
Forward returns after "More than 20% above"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 75 | -0.1% | +1.7% | 47% | +33.5% | -14.8% | +0.7% | -0.9% |
| 1 month | 74 | +4.1% | +8.6% | 62% | +190.6% | -36.5% | +2.9% | +1.2% |
| 3 months | 73 | +17.6% | +46.5% | 71% | +628.4% | -32.4% | +10.3% | +7.3% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct 2026 | $86,510 | -3.3% | pending | pending |
| 21 Sep 2026 | $86,587 | -3.6% | -3.0% | pending |
| 12 Aug 2025 | $120,107 | -6.0% | -3.8% | -11.8% |
| 27 Jul 2025 | $119,469 | -4.4% | -6.4% | -6.5% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | $120,011 | -1.7% | -6.3% | -7.9% |
| 11 Jul 2025 | $117,579 | +0.4% | +1.5% | +3.5% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | $96,642 | -13.0% | -13.0% | +10.6% |
| 08 Nov 2024 | $76,561 | +19.0% | +32.2% | +26.1% |
| 15 May 2024 | $66,242 | +4.3% | -0.4% | -8.5% |
| 12 May 2024 | $61,462 | +7.8% | +9.5% | -0.8% |
| 03 May 2024 | $62,915 | -3.4% | +7.7% | +3.8% |
| 26 Jan 2024 | $41,818 | +3.3% | +23.7% | +54.2% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.