Bitcoin Radar · Trend · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin 200-day SMA: +7.0% Close above the 200-day SMA
Bitcoin close relative to its 200-day simple moving average. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every 200-day SMA trigger signal since 04 Mar 2012.
- Close vs SMA 200
- +7.0%
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Close above the 200-day SMA
- Median next 1 week
- +0.6%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.4%
- Median next 3 months
- +11.4%
What is the 200-Day Moving Average?
The 200-day simple moving average is the most cited long-term trend line in finance. It is the mean of the last 200 daily closes.
Formula. SMA(200) = mean of the last 200 daily closes. Value = Close / SMA(200) - 1 in percent.
How to read it
- Close above the 200-day SMA: long-term uptrend by the classic definition.
- Close below: long-term downtrend.
- Distance from the average, in percent, shows how stretched price is.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has spent the majority of its history above its 200-day average, but the deepest drawdowns happened below it. The table counts the first close above or below SMA 200, and the first close more than 20 percent away.
Signals tracked on this page
- Close above the 200-day SMA Bullish First daily close at or above SMA(200).
- Close below the 200-day SMA Bearish First daily close under SMA(200).
- Close crosses above the 200-day SMA Bullish Close reclaims SMA(200).
- Close crosses below the 200-day SMA Bearish Close loses SMA(200).
- More than 20% above Bearish First daily close more than 20% above SMA(200).
- More than 20% below Bullish First daily close more than 20% under SMA(200).
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's 200-Day Moving Average reads +7.0%, which is the "Close above the 200-day SMA" signal. Since 04 Mar 2012, across 49 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was -0.4% (mean +3.3%, 45% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +0.6% and over 3 months +11.4%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each 200-day SMA trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close above the 200-day SMA active Bullish | First daily close at or above SMA(200). | +0.6% | -0.4% | +11.4% |
| Close below the 200-day SMA Bearish | First daily close under SMA(200). | -0.3% | -2.5% | +11.5% |
| Close crosses above the 200-day SMA Bullish | Close reclaims SMA(200). | +0.6% | -0.4% | +11.4% |
| Close crosses below the 200-day SMA Bearish | Close loses SMA(200). | -0.3% | -2.5% | +11.8% |
| More than 20% above Bearish | First daily close more than 20% above SMA(200). | -0.1% | +4.1% | +17.6% |
| More than 20% below Bullish | First daily close more than 20% under SMA(200). | -0.2% | +1.9% | +0.4% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with 200-day SMA (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Close above the 200-day SMA"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 49 | +0.6% | +1.1% | 57% | +21.7% | -14.1% | +0.7% | -0.2% |
| 1 month | 49 | -0.4% | +3.3% | 45% | +74.2% | -29.1% | +2.9% | -3.4% |
| 3 months | 48 | +11.4% | +24.3% | 62% | +541.8% | -42.2% | +10.3% | +1.1% |
Most recent "Close above the 200-day SMA" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | $69,298 | +14.0% | +16.7% | pending |
| 31 Oct 2025 | $109,554 | -5.7% | -17.5% | -22.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | $110,111 | -1.6% | -23.1% | -18.8% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | $108,684 | +5.4% | -14.5% | -12.5% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | $93,481 | +0.9% | +19.5% | +25.6% |
| 23 Mar 2025 | $86,084 | -4.3% | +8.6% | +18.7% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | $86,868 | +0.1% | -2.8% | +20.4% |
| 14 Mar 2025 | $83,975 | +0.1% | -0.3% | +25.9% |
| 12 Mar 2025 | $83,620 | +3.9% | -0.3% | +31.9% |
| 14 Oct 2024 | $66,070 | +1.9% | +37.0% | +43.0% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | $65,175 | -6.8% | +2.8% | +52.5% |
| 24 Sep 2024 | $64,260 | -5.4% | +6.1% | +47.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Is the 200-day moving average a good Bitcoin indicator?
Compare the first-close-above and first-close-below rows with the baseline. The gap in average forward return is the measured historical edge of those entries.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.