Bitcoin Radar · ADX · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin ADX: ADX above 40 Neutral
First daily close with ADX reaching 40. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 13 Sep 2011.
- Current ADX(14)
- 20.8
- Median next 1 week
- +3.4%
- Median next 1 month
- +5.2%
- Median next 3 months
- +14.1%
- Occurrences
- 57
About this signal
ADX above 40 is a neutral ADX signal: First daily close with ADX reaching 40.
The Average Directional Index measures trend strength from 0 to 100 without regard to direction. Its companions, +DI and -DI, tell you which side is in control.
Formula. +DI = 100 x Wilder(+DM) / ATR; -DI = 100 x Wilder(-DM) / ATR; DX = 100 x |+DI - -DI| / (+DI + -DI); ADX = Wilder(DX, 14).
"ADX above 40" is a neutral ADX signal: First daily close with ADX reaching 40. On the 57 occasions it first turned on since 13 Sep 2011, the median return over the next 30 days was +5.2% (mean +12.0%, 67% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of +2.2%. The 1-week median was +3.4% (68% positive) and the 3-month median +14.1% (70% positive).
Forward returns after "ADX above 40"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 57 | +3.4% | +6.7% | 68% | +97.4% | -25.6% | +0.7% | +2.7% |
| 1 month | 57 | +5.2% | +12.0% | 67% | +209.6% | -33.5% | +2.9% | +2.2% |
| 3 months | 56 | +14.1% | +49.2% | 70% | +756.8% | -41.7% | +10.3% | +3.8% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | $78,235 | +2.0% | +6.7% | pending |
| 06 Jun 2026 | $60,859 | +5.9% | +5.2% | +30.9% |
| 06 Feb 2026 | $70,531 | -2.4% | -6.5% | +13.4% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | $86,527 | +5.5% | +2.1% | -23.2% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | $84,639 | +6.2% | -2.4% | +27.4% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | $91,070 | +8.7% | +14.7% | +6.1% |
| 09 Jul 2024 | $58,033 | +12.1% | +6.3% | +7.2% |
| 29 Feb 2024 | $61,161 | +9.5% | +13.8% | +10.5% |
| 24 Oct 2023 | $33,917 | +2.2% | +10.0% | +16.5% |
| 15 Apr 2023 | $30,332 | -8.3% | -10.4% | -0.0% |
| 17 Jan 2023 | $21,134 | +7.1% | +11.3% | +39.3% |
| 20 Nov 2022 | $16,256 | +1.0% | +3.9% | +51.6% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.