Bitcoin Radar · Trend · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin ADX: 20.8 ADX 20 to 25
ADX(14) trend strength combined with +DI/-DI direction. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every ADX trigger signal since 13 Sep 2011.
- ADX(14)
- 20.8
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- ADX 20 to 25
- Median next 1 week
- -0.1%
- Median next 1 month
- +3.4%
- Median next 3 months
- +11.2%
What is the Average Directional Index (ADX)?
The Average Directional Index measures trend strength from 0 to 100 without regard to direction. Its companions, +DI and -DI, tell you which side is in control.
Formula. +DI = 100 x Wilder(+DM) / ATR; -DI = 100 x Wilder(-DM) / ATR; DX = 100 x |+DI - -DI| / (+DI + -DI); ADX = Wilder(DX, 14).
How to read it
- ADX below 20: no meaningful trend; oscillators work better.
- ADX above 25: a trend exists; trend-following works better.
- ADX above 40: a very strong trend that can also be near exhaustion.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin spends long stretches in strong trends where ADX exceeds 25. The table shows what happened after ADX first entered each bucket, split by which directional line was leading.
Signals tracked on this page
- ADX below 20 (no trend) Neutral First daily close with ADX falling under 20.
- ADX 20 to 25 Neutral First daily close with ADX entering 20 to 25.
- ADX above 25 with +DI leading Bullish First daily close with ADX at or above 25 and +DI leading.
- ADX above 25 with -DI leading Bearish First daily close with ADX at or above 25 and -DI leading.
- ADX above 40 Neutral First daily close with ADX reaching 40.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 20.8, which is the "ADX 20 to 25" signal. Since 13 Sep 2011, across 187 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +3.4% (mean +6.3%, 58% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -0.1% and over 3 months +11.2%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each ADX trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADX below 20 (no trend) Neutral | First daily close with ADX falling under 20. | -0.9% | +3.0% | +6.5% |
| ADX 20 to 25 active Neutral | First daily close with ADX entering 20 to 25. | -0.1% | +3.4% | +11.2% |
| ADX above 25 with +DI leading Bullish | First daily close with ADX at or above 25 and +DI leading. | +1.5% | +7.7% | +9.0% |
| ADX above 25 with -DI leading Bearish | First daily close with ADX at or above 25 and -DI leading. | +1.3% | +2.4% | +6.8% |
| ADX above 40 Neutral | First daily close with ADX reaching 40. | +3.4% | +5.2% | +14.1% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with ADX (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "ADX 20 to 25"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 188 | -0.1% | +0.4% | 49% | +25.8% | -32.3% | +0.7% | -0.8% |
| 1 month | 187 | +3.4% | +6.3% | 58% | +94.7% | -49.4% | +2.9% | +0.5% |
| 3 months | 186 | +11.2% | +33.5% | 57% | +604.9% | -55.4% | +10.3% | +0.9% |
Most recent "ADX 20 to 25" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | $77,430 | pending | pending | pending |
| 17 Oct 2026 | $81,385 | -0.8% | pending | pending |
| 21 Aug 2026 | $78,325 | -0.6% | +3.6% | pending |
| 12 Jul 2026 | $63,743 | +1.5% | -0.3% | +30.1% |
| 27 May 2026 | $74,330 | -13.8% | -19.3% | +5.7% |
| 19 May 2026 | $76,757 | -1.2% | -18.1% | -16.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | $75,745 | +7.5% | -3.1% | -15.7% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | $78,208 | -3.1% | -3.5% | -14.9% |
| 19 Mar 2026 | $69,921 | -1.6% | +8.3% | -7.8% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | $89,135 | -15.1% | -24.3% | -13.2% |
| 05 Jan 2026 | $93,876 | -2.9% | -22.2% | -26.5% |
| 22 Dec 2025 | $88,539 | -1.6% | +0.9% | -23.4% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.