Bitcoin Radar · ATR · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin ATR: NATR in bottom 20% of the past year Neutral active now
First daily close with NATR in the bottom 20% of the past year. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 31 Aug 2011.
- Current NATR(14) %
- 2.50
- Median next 1 week
- -0.8%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.6%
- Median next 3 months
- -0.2%
- Occurrences
- 103
About this signal
NATR in bottom 20% of the past year is a neutral ATR signal: First daily close with NATR in the bottom 20% of the past year.
Average True Range is the 14-day average of each day's true range, which includes overnight gaps. Dividing by price gives the normalised ATR in percent, comparable across Bitcoin's price history.
Formula. True Range = max(High - Low, |High - Previous Close|, |Low - Previous Close|); ATR = Wilder(TR, 14); NATR = 100 x ATR / Close.
"NATR in bottom 20% of the past year" is a neutral ATR signal: First daily close with NATR in the bottom 20% of the past year. On the 99 occasions it first turned on since 15 Nov 2012, the median return over the next 30 days was -0.6% (mean +1.6%, 48% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of -3.5%. The 1-week median was -0.8% (48% positive) and the 3-month median -0.2% (47% positive). This signal is active as of the 01 Nov 2026 close.
Forward returns after "NATR in bottom 20% of the past year"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 103 | -0.8% | +0.2% | 48% | +25.9% | -18.6% | +0.7% | -1.5% |
| 1 month | 99 | -0.6% | +1.6% | 48% | +56.5% | -36.3% | +2.9% | -3.5% |
| 3 months | 97 | -0.2% | +30.1% | 47% | +677.1% | -49.9% | +10.3% | -10.4% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | $77,430 | pending | pending | pending |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $81,076 | -4.8% | pending | pending |
| 17 Oct 2026 | $81,385 | -0.8% | pending | pending |
| 09 Oct 2026 | $82,562 | -1.3% | pending | pending |
| 03 Oct 2026 | $84,747 | -2.2% | pending | pending |
| 29 Sep 2026 | $83,629 | +2.3% | -7.0% | pending |
| 27 Sep 2026 | $84,457 | +2.4% | -4.3% | pending |
| 02 Aug 2026 | $63,500 | +2.1% | +21.9% | +21.9% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | $63,894 | +1.1% | +21.8% | +26.5% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | $65,339 | -2.8% | +20.2% | +23.6% |
| 06 Sep 2025 | $110,223 | +5.2% | +13.2% | -18.9% |
| 03 Sep 2025 | $111,759 | +2.0% | +9.4% | -18.3% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.