Bitcoin Radar · Volatility · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin ATR: 2.50 NATR in bottom 20% of the past year
Normalised ATR(14) as a percent of price, and its 1-year percentile. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every ATR trigger signal since 31 Aug 2011.
- NATR(14) %
- 2.50
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- NATR in bottom 20% of the past year
- Median next 1 week
- -0.8%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.6%
- Median next 3 months
- -0.2%
What is the Average True Range (ATR)?
Average True Range is the 14-day average of each day's true range, which includes overnight gaps. Dividing by price gives the normalised ATR in percent, comparable across Bitcoin's price history.
Formula. True Range = max(High - Low, |High - Previous Close|, |Low - Previous Close|); ATR = Wilder(TR, 14); NATR = 100 x ATR / Close.
How to read it
- Low percentile: volatility is compressed relative to the last year.
- High percentile: volatility is expanded, often around trend climaxes.
- ATR is direction-agnostic; use it for position sizing and stop distance.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's daily NATR has ranged from under 1 percent to over 15 percent. Compressed volatility regimes have historically preceded large moves, which the low-volatility row measures.
Signals tracked on this page
- NATR in bottom 20% of the past year Neutral First daily close with NATR in the bottom 20% of the past year.
- NATR in the middle of the past year Neutral First daily close with NATR in the middle of its 1-year range.
- NATR in top 20% of the past year Neutral First daily close with NATR in the top 20% of the past year.
- NATR below 2% Neutral First daily close with NATR under 2%.
- NATR above 6% Neutral First daily close with NATR above 6%.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Average True Range (ATR) reads 2.50, which is the "NATR in bottom 20% of the past year" signal. Since 31 Aug 2011, across 99 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was -0.6% (mean +1.6%, 48% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -0.8% and over 3 months -0.2%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each ATR trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATR in bottom 20% of the past year active Neutral | First daily close with NATR in the bottom 20% of the past year. | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| NATR in the middle of the past year Neutral | First daily close with NATR in the middle of its 1-year range. | +0.3% | +3.9% | +10.0% |
| NATR in top 20% of the past year Neutral | First daily close with NATR in the top 20% of the past year. | +0.6% | +6.6% | +20.5% |
| NATR below 2% Neutral | First daily close with NATR under 2%. | +0.4% | +13.5% | +29.3% |
| NATR above 6% Neutral | First daily close with NATR above 6%. | +1.5% | +0.3% | -0.8% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with ATR (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "NATR in bottom 20% of the past year"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 103 | -0.8% | +0.2% | 48% | +25.9% | -18.6% | +0.7% | -1.5% |
| 1 month | 99 | -0.6% | +1.6% | 48% | +56.5% | -36.3% | +2.9% | -3.5% |
| 3 months | 97 | -0.2% | +30.1% | 47% | +677.1% | -49.9% | +10.3% | -10.4% |
Most recent "NATR in bottom 20% of the past year" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | $77,430 | pending | pending | pending |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $81,076 | -4.8% | pending | pending |
| 17 Oct 2026 | $81,385 | -0.8% | pending | pending |
| 09 Oct 2026 | $82,562 | -1.3% | pending | pending |
| 03 Oct 2026 | $84,747 | -2.2% | pending | pending |
| 29 Sep 2026 | $83,629 | +2.3% | -7.0% | pending |
| 27 Sep 2026 | $84,457 | +2.4% | -4.3% | pending |
| 02 Aug 2026 | $63,500 | +2.1% | +21.9% | +21.9% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | $63,894 | +1.1% | +21.8% | +26.5% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | $65,339 | -2.8% | +20.2% | +23.6% |
| 06 Sep 2025 | $110,223 | +5.2% | +13.2% | -18.9% |
| 03 Sep 2025 | $111,759 | +2.0% | +9.4% | -18.3% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.