Bitcoin Radar · Volatility · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Bollinger: 0.15 Close inside the bands
20-day, 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands: band touches and squeezes. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Bollinger trigger signal since 06 Sep 2011.
- %B
- 0.15
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Close inside the bands
- Median next 1 week
- +1.6%
- Median next 1 month
- +4.0%
- Median next 3 months
- +12.9%
What is the Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger Bands wrap a 20-day simple moving average with lines two standard deviations above and below it. Band width expands in volatile markets and contracts in quiet ones.
Formula. Middle = SMA(20); Upper = Middle + 2 x StdDev(20); Lower = Middle - 2 x StdDev(20); %B = (Close - Lower) / (Upper - Lower).
How to read it
- A close below the lower band is a statistically rare down move; a close above the upper band a rare up move.
- %B above 1 or below 0 tells you the close is outside the bands.
- A squeeze, the narrowest width in 120 days, usually precedes an expansion, but not its direction.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin regularly "walks the band" during strong trends, closing above the upper band for many consecutive days. The published statistics use only the first close outside the bands, not every subsequent close while price stays outside.
Signals tracked on this page
- Close below lower band Bullish First daily close under the lower band (%B < 0).
- Close above upper band Bearish First daily close over the upper band (%B > 1).
- Close inside the bands Neutral First daily close back between the lower and upper bands.
- Bollinger squeeze (120-day narrowest) Neutral First daily close of a 120-day Bollinger squeeze.
- Close back inside from below Bullish Close crosses back above the lower band.
- Close back inside from above Bearish Close crosses back below the upper band.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands reads 0.15, which is the "Close inside the bands" signal. Since 06 Sep 2011, across 337 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +4.0% (mean +11.6%, 58% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +1.6% and over 3 months +12.9%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Bollinger trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close below lower band Bullish | First daily close under the lower band (%B < 0). | +0.6% | -1.8% | +4.0% |
| Close above upper band Bearish | First daily close over the upper band (%B > 1). | +2.6% | +6.1% | +24.0% |
| Close inside the bands active Neutral | First daily close back between the lower and upper bands. | +1.6% | +4.0% | +12.9% |
| Bollinger squeeze (120-day narrowest) Neutral | First daily close of a 120-day Bollinger squeeze. | +1.0% | +1.2% | +9.5% |
| Close back inside from below active Bullish | Close crosses back above the lower band. | +0.9% | -1.0% | +4.8% |
| Close back inside from above Bearish | Close crosses back below the upper band. | +2.3% | +6.8% | +22.1% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Bollinger (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Close inside the bands"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 337 | +1.6% | +3.2% | 60% | +93.0% | -44.5% | +0.7% | +0.9% |
| 1 month | 337 | +4.0% | +11.6% | 58% | +405.6% | -46.9% | +2.9% | +1.0% |
| 3 months | 335 | +12.9% | +43.2% | 63% | +761.8% | -63.4% | +10.3% | +2.7% |
Most recent "Close inside the bands" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | $78,233 | pending | pending | pending |
| 23 Sep 2026 | $84,385 | -1.0% | -3.9% | pending |
| 24 Aug 2026 | $78,986 | -0.5% | +6.8% | pending |
| 22 Jul 2026 | $66,082 | -3.3% | +18.5% | +25.5% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | $60,019 | +4.2% | +8.9% | +40.6% |
| 07 Jun 2026 | $63,316 | +3.8% | -0.0% | +26.1% |
| 23 May 2026 | $76,656 | -3.8% | -16.6% | +2.2% |
| 07 May 2026 | $80,017 | +1.3% | -23.9% | -19.3% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | $73,928 | -4.6% | +1.7% | -10.3% |
| 05 Mar 2026 | $70,896 | -0.5% | -5.1% | -9.7% |
| 06 Feb 2026 | $70,531 | -2.4% | -6.5% | +13.4% |
| 02 Feb 2026 | $78,666 | -10.9% | -7.6% | -0.1% |
Frequently asked questions
What does a Bollinger squeeze mean for Bitcoin?
Volatility is compressed relative to the last 120 days. Historically expansions follow, and the table shows the average return after squeeze days over 1 week, 1 month and 3 months.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.