Bitcoin Radar · EMA Ribbon · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin EMA Ribbon: Ribbon fully bearish Bearish
First daily close with EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 04 Mar 2012.
- Current Ribbon score
- Fully bullish
- Median next 1 week
- -1.0%
- Median next 1 month
- -2.2%
- Median next 3 months
- +1.0%
- Occurrences
- 18
About this signal
Ribbon fully bearish is a bearish EMA Ribbon signal: First daily close with EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200.
An EMA ribbon stacks several exponential moving averages. When they are in perfect ascending order the trend is unambiguously up; in perfect descending order it is down.
Formula. EMA(p) = Close x k + EMA(p-1) x (1 - k), k = 2 / (p + 1). Fully bullish when EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200; fully bearish when the order is reversed.
"Ribbon fully bearish" is a bearish EMA Ribbon signal: First daily close with EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200. On the 18 occasions it first turned on since 05 Mar 2012, the median return over the next 30 days was -2.2% (mean -2.8%, 44% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of -5.1%. The 1-week median was -1.0% (39% positive) and the 3-month median +1.0% (50% positive).
Forward returns after "Ribbon fully bearish"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 18 | -1.0% | -0.3% | 39% | +27.1% | -13.9% | +0.7% | -1.7% |
| 1 month | 18 | -2.2% | -2.8% | 44% | +33.6% | -24.2% | +2.9% | -5.1% |
| 3 months | 18 | +1.0% | +8.7% | 50% | +122.2% | -49.3% | +10.3% | -9.3% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | $73,568 | -13.9% | -20.4% | +6.3% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | $88,316 | +0.9% | -24.2% | -14.1% |
| 28 Nov 2025 | $90,913 | -1.7% | -3.3% | -25.8% |
| 09 Nov 2022 | $15,877 | +4.9% | +7.9% | +46.5% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | $20,841 | -2.8% | -6.8% | -19.9% |
| 15 Apr 2022 | $40,563 | -2.1% | -22.8% | -49.3% |
| 26 Jan 2022 | $36,829 | +0.3% | +6.5% | +3.6% |
| 17 Mar 2020 | $5,325 | +27.1% | +33.6% | +77.2% |
| 12 Dec 2019 | $7,188 | -0.5% | +11.5% | +10.4% |
| 06 Sep 2018 | $6,493 | -0.1% | +0.8% | -43.1% |
| 09 Aug 2018 | $6,544 | -3.5% | -5.6% | -0.7% |
| 05 Jun 2018 | $7,618 | -13.9% | -14.2% | -4.7% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.