Bitcoin Radar · Trend · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin EMA Ribbon: Fully bullish Ribbon fully bullish
Alignment of the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every EMA Ribbon trigger signal since 04 Mar 2012.
- Ribbon score
- Fully bullish
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Ribbon fully bullish
- Median next 1 week
- +3.0%
- Median next 1 month
- +3.2%
- Median next 3 months
- +21.9%
What is the EMA Ribbon (20 / 50 / 100 / 200)?
An EMA ribbon stacks several exponential moving averages. When they are in perfect ascending order the trend is unambiguously up; in perfect descending order it is down.
Formula. EMA(p) = Close x k + EMA(p-1) x (1 - k), k = 2 / (p + 1). Fully bullish when EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200; fully bearish when the order is reversed.
How to read it
- Fully bullish: EMA 20 above 50 above 100 above 200.
- Fully bearish: the reverse order.
- Mixed: a transition or range.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's prolonged trends produce long fully-aligned stretches. The statistics show the average return after the ribbon first aligned each way, not after every day it stayed aligned.
Signals tracked on this page
- Ribbon fully bullish Bullish First daily close with EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200.
- Ribbon fully bearish Bearish First daily close with EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200.
- Ribbon mixed Neutral First daily close where the EMAs leave a strict order.
- Close above EMA 20 Bullish First daily close above EMA 20.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's EMA Ribbon (20 / 50 / 100 / 200) reads Fully bullish, which is the "Ribbon fully bullish" signal. Since 04 Mar 2012, across 25 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +3.2% (mean +10.0%, 52% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +3.0% and over 3 months +21.9%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each EMA Ribbon trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ribbon fully bullish active Bullish | First daily close with EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200. | +3.0% | +3.2% | +21.9% |
| Ribbon fully bearish Bearish | First daily close with EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200. | -1.0% | -2.2% | +1.0% |
| Ribbon mixed Neutral | First daily close where the EMAs leave a strict order. | +1.6% | -0.3% | +9.6% |
| Close above EMA 20 Bullish | First daily close above EMA 20. | +0.1% | +1.5% | +6.9% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with EMA Ribbon (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Ribbon fully bullish"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 25 | +3.0% | +1.5% | 68% | +15.1% | -24.0% | +0.7% | +2.2% |
| 1 month | 25 | +3.2% | +10.0% | 52% | +42.6% | -10.9% | +2.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 months | 24 | +21.9% | +48.8% | 67% | +324.4% | -27.1% | +10.3% | +11.6% |
Most recent "Ribbon fully bullish" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct 2026 | $84,501 | -2.3% | -7.4% | pending |
| 01 Oct 2025 | $118,668 | +3.9% | -7.7% | -25.5% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | $115,387 | -2.3% | -4.0% | -23.6% |
| 03 May 2025 | $95,916 | +9.3% | +10.4% | +18.1% |
| 13 Oct 2024 | $62,849 | +9.8% | +40.1% | +50.5% |
| 22 Jul 2024 | $67,562 | -1.2% | -9.5% | +2.1% |
| 18 May 2024 | $66,930 | +3.5% | -0.7% | -12.0% |
| 22 Oct 2023 | $30,002 | +15.1% | +19.2% | +38.9% |
| 22 Jun 2023 | $29,889 | +1.9% | -0.3% | -9.2% |
| 22 Mar 2023 | $27,320 | +3.8% | -0.2% | +3.6% |
| 03 Oct 2021 | $48,236 | +13.4% | +31.1% | -1.0% |
| 19 Aug 2021 | $46,764 | +0.2% | +3.3% | +29.1% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.