Bitcoin Radar · Golden / Death Cross · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Golden / Death Cross: Death cross Bearish
SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200). Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 04 Mar 2012.
- Current SMA50 vs SMA200
- +12.0%
- Median next 1 week
- -0.5%
- Median next 1 month
- +0.0%
- Median next 3 months
- +29.4%
- Occurrences
- 12
About this signal
Death cross is a bearish Golden / Death Cross signal: SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200).
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above the 200-day simple moving average; a death cross is the reverse. They are among the most widely reported Bitcoin chart events in mainstream media.
Formula. Golden cross: SMA(50) crosses above SMA(200). Death cross: SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200). Value = SMA(50) / SMA(200) - 1 in percent.
"Death cross" is a bearish Golden / Death Cross signal: SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200). On the 12 occasions it first turned on since 09 Apr 2014, the median return over the next 30 days was +0.0% (mean +0.0%, 50% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of -2.9%. The 1-week median was -0.5% (42% positive) and the 3-month median +29.4% (58% positive).
Forward returns after "Death cross"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 12 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 42% | +20.0% | -15.3% | +0.7% | -1.2% |
| 1 month | 12 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 50% | +33.4% | -33.1% | +2.9% | -2.9% |
| 3 months | 12 | +29.4% | +21.6% | 58% | +92.7% | -25.9% | +10.3% | +19.1% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2025 | $94,187 | -7.8% | -6.7% | -25.9% |
| 07 Apr 2025 | $79,127 | +6.9% | +22.7% | +38.0% |
| 10 Aug 2024 | $60,952 | -2.4% | -6.4% | +25.6% |
| 12 Sep 2023 | $25,844 | +5.3% | +3.5% | +59.6% |
| 14 Jan 2022 | $43,102 | -15.3% | -2.4% | -7.3% |
| 19 Jun 2021 | $35,507 | -9.1% | -13.2% | +33.2% |
| 25 Mar 2020 | $6,692 | -0.6% | +12.2% | +43.8% |
| 26 Oct 2019 | $9,253 | +0.6% | -23.0% | -9.0% |
| 31 Mar 2018 | $6,929 | -0.3% | +33.4% | -10.5% |
| 15 Sep 2015 | $230.03 | +0.2% | +10.6% | +92.7% |
| 04 Sep 2014 | $487.43 | -2.4% | -33.1% | -23.0% |
| 09 Apr 2014 | $441.69 | +20.0% | +2.4% | +41.3% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.