Bitcoin Radar · Trend · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Golden / Death Cross: +12.0% SMA 50 above SMA 200
50-day SMA versus 200-day SMA: golden cross, death cross, and the first close after SMA 50 moves above or below SMA 200. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Golden / Death Cross trigger signal since 04 Mar 2012.
- SMA50 vs SMA200
- +12.0%
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- SMA 50 above SMA 200
- Median next 1 week
- -3.0%
- Median next 1 month
- +3.7%
- Median next 3 months
- +13.5%
What is the Golden Cross / Death Cross (50 & 200-day SMA)?
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above the 200-day simple moving average; a death cross is the reverse. They are among the most widely reported Bitcoin chart events in mainstream media.
Formula. Golden cross: SMA(50) crosses above SMA(200). Death cross: SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200). Value = SMA(50) / SMA(200) - 1 in percent.
How to read it
- Golden cross: medium-term trend has turned up relative to the long-term trend.
- Death cross: medium-term trend has turned down. Because both averages lag, the cross often arrives after a sizeable move has already happened.
- The SMA-50-above and SMA-50-below rows count the first close of each spell, not every day the average stayed on top.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has produced only a handful of golden and death crosses since 2011, so those event samples are small. The SMA-50-above and SMA-50-below rows count the first close of each spell, not every day the regime lasted.
Signals tracked on this page
- Golden cross Bullish SMA(50) crosses above SMA(200).
- Death cross Bearish SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200).
- SMA 50 above SMA 200 Bullish First daily close with SMA(50) moving above SMA(200).
- SMA 50 below SMA 200 Bearish First daily close with SMA(50) moving below SMA(200).
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Golden Cross / Death Cross (50 & 200-day SMA) reads +12.0%, which is the "SMA 50 above SMA 200" signal. Since 04 Mar 2012, across 13 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +3.7% (mean +5.2%, 62% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -3.0% and over 3 months +13.5%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Golden / Death Cross trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden cross Bullish | SMA(50) crosses above SMA(200). | -3.3% | +3.7% | +19.1% |
| Death cross Bearish | SMA(50) crosses below SMA(200). | -0.5% | +0.0% | +29.4% |
| SMA 50 above SMA 200 active Bullish | First daily close with SMA(50) moving above SMA(200). | -3.0% | +3.7% | +13.5% |
| SMA 50 below SMA 200 Bearish | First daily close with SMA(50) moving below SMA(200). | -0.5% | +0.0% | +29.4% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Golden / Death Cross (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "SMA 50 above SMA 200"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 13 | -3.0% | +0.1% | 31% | +33.5% | -9.5% | +0.7% | -3.7% |
| 1 month | 13 | +3.7% | +5.2% | 62% | +42.5% | -39.3% | +2.9% | +0.8% |
| 3 months | 12 | +13.5% | +15.2% | 75% | +86.7% | -43.4% | +10.3% | +3.2% |
Most recent "SMA 50 above SMA 200" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep 2026 | $78,449 | -3.7% | +4.1% | pending |
| 22 May 2025 | $111,743 | -5.5% | -8.6% | +2.3% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | $69,918 | -3.0% | +37.3% | +46.7% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | $34,495 | +1.6% | +9.8% | +21.8% |
| 07 Feb 2023 | $23,252 | -4.5% | -12.4% | +19.1% |
| 15 Sep 2021 | $48,151 | -9.5% | +28.1% | +0.5% |
| 21 May 2020 | $9,062 | +5.7% | +3.2% | +29.7% |
| 18 Feb 2020 | $10,185 | -8.6% | -39.3% | -4.5% |
| 23 Apr 2019 | $5,531 | -4.7% | +42.5% | +86.7% |
| 28 Oct 2015 | $305.67 | +33.5% | +16.8% | +28.2% |
| 15 Jul 2015 | $285.67 | -2.8% | -7.1% | -12.6% |
| 12 Jul 2014 | $638.10 | -1.5% | -10.0% | -43.4% |
Frequently asked questions
How many Bitcoin golden crosses have there been?
See the occurrence count for the golden-cross signal in the table; each is a daily cross of SMA(50) above SMA(200) on Bitstamp data since 2011.
Is a death cross bearish for Bitcoin?
Historically the death cross has often arrived near local lows because of moving-average lag. The forward-return table quantifies that rather than assuming it.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.