Bitcoin Radar · Pi Cycle Top · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top: Ratio below 0.8 Neutral active now
First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio falling under 0.8. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 01 Aug 2012.
- Current SMA111 / (2 x SMA350)
- 0.50x
- Median next 1 week
- -1.7%
- Median next 1 month
- +13.9%
- Median next 3 months
- +17.5%
- Occurrences
- 5
About this signal
Ratio below 0.8 is a neutral Pi Cycle Top signal: First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio falling under 0.8.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, popularised by Philip Swift, fires when the 111-day moving average crosses above twice the 350-day moving average. It flagged the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks within days.
Formula. Pi Cycle Top triggers when SMA(111) crosses above 2 x SMA(350). Ratio = SMA(111) / (2 x SMA(350)).
"Ratio below 0.8" is a neutral Pi Cycle Top signal: First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio falling under 0.8. On the 5 occasions it first turned on since 01 Aug 2012, the median return over the next 30 days was +13.9% (mean +19.6%, 100% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of +11.0%. The 1-week median was -1.7% (40% positive) and the 3-month median +17.5% (80% positive). This signal is active as of the 01 Nov 2026 close.
Forward returns after "Ratio below 0.8"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 5 | -1.7% | +4.8% | 40% | +18.7% | -4.6% | +0.7% | -2.4% |
| 1 month | 5 | +13.9% | +19.6% | 100% | +37.3% | +7.5% | +2.9% | +11.0% |
| 3 months | 5 | +17.5% | +128.1% | 80% | +578.7% | -1.1% | +10.3% | +7.2% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun 2021 | $35,908 | -4.6% | +11.5% | +17.5% |
| 09 Apr 2018 | $6,780 | +18.7% | +37.3% | -1.1% |
| 29 Apr 2014 | $448.00 | -4.5% | +27.8% | +30.9% |
| 15 Sep 2013 | $125.36 | -1.7% | +13.9% | +578.7% |
| 01 Aug 2012 | $9.45 | +16.3% | +7.5% | +14.3% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.