Bitcoin Radar · Bitcoin cycle · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top: 0.50x Ratio below 0.8
111-day SMA versus 2 x 350-day SMA: the Pi Cycle Top cross and its proximity. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Pi Cycle Top trigger signal since 01 Aug 2012.
- SMA111 / (2 x SMA350)
- 0.50x
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Ratio below 0.8
- Median next 1 week
- -1.7%
- Median next 1 month
- +13.9%
- Median next 3 months
- +17.5%
What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, popularised by Philip Swift, fires when the 111-day moving average crosses above twice the 350-day moving average. It flagged the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks within days.
Formula. Pi Cycle Top triggers when SMA(111) crosses above 2 x SMA(350). Ratio = SMA(111) / (2 x SMA(350)).
How to read it
- Ratio approaching 1.0: the two averages are converging.
- Cross above 1.0: the top signal.
- Ratio well below 0.8: no top risk from this model.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
With only a few historical crosses the trigger sample is tiny; the ratio buckets provide the statistically meaningful view.
Signals tracked on this page
- Pi Cycle Top cross Bearish SMA(111) crosses above 2 x SMA(350).
- Ratio above 1.0 Bearish First daily close with SMA(111) at or above 2 x SMA(350).
- Ratio between 0.8 and 1.0 Neutral First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio entering 0.8 to 1.0.
- Ratio below 0.8 Neutral First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio falling under 0.8.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Pi Cycle Top Indicator reads 0.50x, which is the "Ratio below 0.8" signal. Since 01 Aug 2012, across 5 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +13.9% (mean +19.6%, 100% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -1.7% and over 3 months +17.5%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Pi Cycle Top trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pi Cycle Top cross Bearish | SMA(111) crosses above 2 x SMA(350). | -18.7% | -18.4% | -43.4% |
| Ratio above 1.0 Bearish | First daily close with SMA(111) at or above 2 x SMA(350). | -18.7% | -18.4% | -43.4% |
| Ratio between 0.8 and 1.0 Neutral | First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio entering 0.8 to 1.0. | +4.6% | +12.7% | +52.6% |
| Ratio below 0.8 active Neutral | First daily close with the Pi Cycle ratio falling under 0.8. | -1.7% | +13.9% | +17.5% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Pi Cycle Top (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Ratio below 0.8"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 5 | -1.7% | +4.8% | 40% | +18.7% | -4.6% | +0.7% | -2.4% |
| 1 month | 5 | +13.9% | +19.6% | 100% | +37.3% | +7.5% | +2.9% | +11.0% |
| 3 months | 5 | +17.5% | +128.1% | 80% | +578.7% | -1.1% | +10.3% | +7.2% |
Most recent "Ratio below 0.8" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun 2021 | $35,908 | -4.6% | +11.5% | +17.5% |
| 09 Apr 2018 | $6,780 | +18.7% | +37.3% | -1.1% |
| 29 Apr 2014 | $448.00 | -4.5% | +27.8% | +30.9% |
| 15 Sep 2013 | $125.36 | -1.7% | +13.9% | +578.7% |
| 01 Aug 2012 | $9.45 | +16.3% | +7.5% | +14.3% |
Frequently asked questions
Has the Pi Cycle Top ever failed?
The occurrence count in the table is the total number of daily crosses; compare the 3-month forward return after each with the baseline to judge.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.