Bitcoin Radar · Rainbow Chart · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: Maximum bubble territory (band 8) Bearish
First daily close more than 0.35 log10 above the model. Below: the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger since 18 Aug 2011.
- Current Close / rainbow model
- 0.52x
- Median next 1 week
- +3.7%
- Median next 1 month
- +4.1%
- Median next 3 months
- +16.0%
- Occurrences
- 30
About this signal
Maximum bubble territory (band 8) is a bearish Rainbow Chart signal: First daily close more than 0.35 log10 above the model.
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart places each daily close into one of nine colour bands around a logarithmic regression of price versus time since the 3 January 2009 genesis block. Cool bands sit below the long-term trend; warm bands sit above it.
Formula. Centre line: log10(price) = 5.6652 * log10(days since 2009-01-03) - 16.4283. Ratio = Close / centre. Nine bands of width 0.1 in log10(ratio) around 0. Coefficients are held fixed, not refit, so the band at close[t] cannot see future prices.
"Maximum bubble territory (band 8)" is a bearish Rainbow Chart signal: First daily close more than 0.35 log10 above the model. On the 30 occasions it first turned on since 18 Aug 2011, the median return over the next 30 days was +4.1% (mean +44.8%, 57% positive) against a baseline median of +2.9%, a median edge of +1.2%. The 1-week median was +3.7% (70% positive) and the 3-month median +16.0% (53% positive).
Forward returns after "Maximum bubble territory (band 8)"
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 30 | +3.7% | +9.6% | 70% | +77.3% | -11.9% | +0.7% | +3.0% |
| 1 month | 30 | +4.1% | +44.8% | 57% | +402.4% | -55.3% | +2.9% | +1.2% |
| 3 months | 30 | +16.0% | +35.3% | 53% | +304.4% | -72.5% | +10.3% | +5.7% |
Most recent times the signal turned on
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct 2021 | $51,501 | +8.7% | +19.3% | -9.8% |
| 01 Sep 2021 | $48,853 | -5.7% | -1.4% | +16.6% |
| 27 Aug 2021 | $49,100 | +1.9% | -12.0% | +20.1% |
| 25 Aug 2021 | $49,012 | -0.3% | -12.6% | +17.5% |
| 20 Aug 2021 | $49,356 | -0.5% | -4.3% | +15.3% |
| 13 Aug 2021 | $47,861 | +3.1% | -3.8% | +35.4% |
| 05 Feb 2021 | $38,320 | +23.7% | +33.0% | +47.3% |
| 03 Feb 2021 | $37,692 | +19.0% | +29.3% | +41.2% |
| 18 Jan 2021 | $36,617 | -11.9% | +42.5% | +53.7% |
| 13 Jan 2021 | $37,393 | -5.1% | +26.7% | +70.0% |
| 06 Jan 2021 | $36,850 | +1.5% | +4.0% | +57.4% |
| 20 Apr 2018 | $8,861 | +0.7% | -3.9% | -15.7% |
Distribution of outcomes
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns after this signal. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.