Bitcoin Radar · Bitcoin cycle · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: 0.52x BUY! (band 1)
Nine logarithmic-regression valuation bands, from fire sale (band 0) to maximum bubble (band 8). This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Rainbow Chart trigger signal since 18 Aug 2011.
- Close / rainbow model
- 0.52x
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- BUY! (band 1)
- Median next 1 week
- +1.2%
- Median next 1 month
- +8.6%
- Median next 3 months
- +29.7%
What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart places each daily close into one of nine colour bands around a logarithmic regression of price versus time since the 3 January 2009 genesis block. Cool bands sit below the long-term trend; warm bands sit above it.
Formula. Centre line: log10(price) = 5.6652 * log10(days since 2009-01-03) - 16.4283. Ratio = Close / centre. Nine bands of width 0.1 in log10(ratio) around 0. Coefficients are held fixed, not refit, so the band at close[t] cannot see future prices.
How to read it
- Fire sale through Accumulate (bands 0-2): price is well below the fitted trend, historically a long-horizon accumulation zone.
- HODL (band 4) is the centre line. "Is this a bubble?" through Maximum bubble (bands 5-8) are increasingly extended.
- The model coefficients are held fixed, not refit each day, so the band assigned to close[t] cannot use information after t.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
There is no single canonical rainbow: BlockchainCenter now refits dynamically and does not publish coefficients. This page uses a published static log-regression so every historical reading is reproducible. Treat band labels as community colour names, not forecasts.
Signals tracked on this page
- Fire sale (band 0) Bullish First daily close more than 0.35 log10 below the model.
- BUY! (band 1) Bullish First daily close entering rainbow band 1.
- Accumulate (band 2) Bullish First daily close entering rainbow band 2.
- Still cheap (band 3) Neutral First daily close entering rainbow band 3.
- HODL (band 4) Neutral First daily close entering rainbow band 4.
- Is this a bubble? (band 5) Neutral First daily close entering rainbow band 5.
- FOMO intensifies (band 6) Bearish First daily close entering rainbow band 6.
- Sell. Seriously, SELL! (band 7) Bearish First daily close entering rainbow band 7.
- Maximum bubble territory (band 8) Bearish First daily close more than 0.35 log10 above the model.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Bitcoin Rainbow Chart reads 0.52x, which is the "BUY! (band 1)" signal. Since 18 Aug 2011, across 83 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +8.6% (mean +15.0%, 81% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +1.2% and over 3 months +29.7%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Rainbow Chart trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire sale (band 0) Bullish | First daily close more than 0.35 log10 below the model. | +3.1% | +14.5% | +64.2% |
| BUY! (band 1) active Bullish | First daily close entering rainbow band 1. | +1.2% | +8.6% | +29.7% |
| Accumulate (band 2) Bullish | First daily close entering rainbow band 2. | +0.7% | +3.0% | +6.9% |
| Still cheap (band 3) Neutral | First daily close entering rainbow band 3. | -0.9% | -5.5% | +6.6% |
| HODL (band 4) Neutral | First daily close entering rainbow band 4. | +1.5% | +4.0% | +19.4% |
| Is this a bubble? (band 5) Neutral | First daily close entering rainbow band 5. | +2.6% | +4.6% | +6.7% |
| FOMO intensifies (band 6) Bearish | First daily close entering rainbow band 6. | +1.9% | +1.5% | +7.5% |
| Sell. Seriously, SELL! (band 7) Bearish | First daily close entering rainbow band 7. | +3.7% | +2.4% | +17.9% |
| Maximum bubble territory (band 8) Bearish | First daily close more than 0.35 log10 above the model. | +3.7% | +4.1% | +16.0% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Rainbow Chart (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "BUY! (band 1)"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 86 | +1.2% | +3.4% | 62% | +36.7% | -17.1% | +0.7% | +0.5% |
| 1 month | 83 | +8.6% | +15.0% | 81% | +84.3% | -20.4% | +2.9% | +5.6% |
| 3 months | 81 | +29.7% | +56.6% | 85% | +485.8% | -14.0% | +10.3% | +19.4% |
Most recent "BUY! (band 1)" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | $81,315 | -4.3% | pending | pending |
| 12 Oct 2026 | $81,746 | +0.1% | pending | pending |
| 08 Oct 2026 | $81,676 | +0.6% | pending | pending |
| 04 Sep 2026 | $79,677 | -3.1% | +8.6% | pending |
| 28 Aug 2026 | $77,835 | +2.4% | +8.5% | pending |
| 02 Jul 2026 | $61,479 | +2.8% | +2.1% | +35.9% |
| 29 Jun 2026 | $60,164 | +6.4% | +6.2% | +40.4% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | $60,019 | +4.2% | +8.9% | +40.6% |
| 31 May 2026 | $73,568 | -13.9% | -20.4% | +6.3% |
| 28 May 2026 | $73,519 | -13.2% | -18.5% | +7.5% |
| 26 Mar 2026 | $68,779 | -2.7% | +12.9% | -11.3% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | $68,910 | -3.8% | +10.1% | -7.9% |
Frequently asked questions
Which rainbow formula is used?
log10(price) = 5.6652 * log10(days since 2009-01-03) - 16.4283. Nine bands of width 0.1 in log10(close / model). Coefficients never change, so there is no lookahead from refitting.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.