Bitcoin Radar · Momentum · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin RSI: 39.6 RSI between 30 and 50
14-day Wilder RSI of Bitcoin daily closes: oversold below 30, overbought above 70. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every RSI trigger signal since 01 Sep 2011.
- RSI(14)
- 39.6
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- RSI between 30 and 50
- Median next 1 week
- -0.1%
- Median next 1 month
- +0.9%
- Median next 3 months
- +7.0%
What is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?
The Relative Strength Index compares the size of recent up-closes with recent down-closes over 14 days and scales the result from 0 to 100. Readings under 30 are conventionally called oversold and readings above 70 overbought.
Formula. RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS), where RS = average gain over 14 days / average loss over 14 days (Wilder smoothing).
How to read it
- Below 30: selling has been one-sided; historically a zone where Bitcoin bounces were common but not guaranteed.
- Above 70: buying has been one-sided; in strong Bitcoin bull runs the RSI can stay above 70 for weeks.
- Crossing back through 30 or 70 is often used as the actual entry or exit trigger rather than the extreme itself.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades 24/7 with no daily close in the equity sense, so the daily RSI here is computed on UTC daily closes from Bitstamp. Because Bitcoin trends hard, overbought RSI on the daily chart has historically been a weaker sell signal than in equities, which is exactly what the forward-return table below measures.
Signals tracked on this page
- RSI below 30 (oversold) Bullish First daily close with RSI(14) under 30.
- RSI between 30 and 50 Neutral First daily close with RSI between 30 and 50.
- RSI between 50 and 70 Neutral First daily close with RSI between 50 and 70.
- RSI above 70 (overbought) Bearish First daily close with RSI(14) at or above 70.
- RSI crosses back above 30 Bullish RSI leaves the oversold zone.
- RSI crosses back below 70 Bearish RSI leaves the overbought zone.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 39.6, which is the "RSI between 30 and 50" signal. Since 01 Sep 2011, across 318 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +0.9% (mean +4.1%, 53% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -0.1% and over 3 months +7.0%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each RSI trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI below 30 (oversold) Bullish | First daily close with RSI(14) under 30. | +1.2% | +0.7% | +7.1% |
| RSI between 30 and 50 active Neutral | First daily close with RSI between 30 and 50. | -0.1% | +0.9% | +7.0% |
| RSI between 50 and 70 Neutral | First daily close with RSI between 50 and 70. | +0.2% | +2.7% | +12.7% |
| RSI above 70 (overbought) Bearish | First daily close with RSI(14) at or above 70. | +3.1% | +10.4% | +30.2% |
| RSI crosses back above 30 Bullish | RSI leaves the oversold zone. | -1.1% | -0.8% | +11.0% |
| RSI crosses back below 70 Bearish | RSI leaves the overbought zone. | +2.2% | +6.9% | +28.0% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with RSI (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "RSI between 30 and 50"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 322 | -0.1% | +0.0% | 49% | +36.6% | -25.5% | +0.7% | -0.8% |
| 1 month | 318 | +0.9% | +4.1% | 53% | +183.6% | -44.2% | +2.9% | -2.1% |
| 3 months | 316 | +7.0% | +19.9% | 58% | +567.8% | -55.4% | +10.3% | -3.3% |
Most recent "RSI between 30 and 50" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | $81,315 | -4.3% | pending | pending |
| 14 Oct 2026 | $81,574 | +3.0% | pending | pending |
| 12 Oct 2026 | $81,746 | +0.1% | pending | pending |
| 08 Oct 2026 | $81,676 | +0.6% | pending | pending |
| 15 Sep 2026 | $75,577 | +14.1% | +8.7% | pending |
| 10 Aug 2026 | $63,911 | +0.9% | +22.5% | pending |
| 31 Jul 2026 | $62,818 | +3.3% | +23.7% | +23.8% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $63,698 | -0.4% | +24.1% | +25.7% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | $64,087 | -2.0% | +21.3% | +26.9% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | $62,257 | +4.7% | +1.8% | +34.4% |
| 08 Jul 2026 | $62,238 | +4.0% | +4.2% | +37.5% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | $63,558 | -1.1% | +0.3% | +23.2% |
Frequently asked questions
What RSI period is used for Bitcoin here?
The standard 14-day period with Wilder smoothing, computed on daily closes.
Does a Bitcoin RSI below 30 mean the price will go up?
Not necessarily. The table shows the average and median forward return and the share of positive outcomes after each RSI zone, so you can see how often oversold readings were followed by gains and by how much relative to the baseline.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.