Bitcoin Radar · Momentum · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin MACD: -453.3 Histogram negative
12/26/9 MACD on daily closes: line versus signal crosses and histogram sign. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every MACD trigger signal since 20 Sep 2011.
- MACD histogram
- -453.3
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Histogram negative
- Median next 1 week
- +0.7%
- Median next 1 month
- +3.5%
- Median next 3 months
- +7.8%
What is the MACD?
Moving Average Convergence Divergence subtracts a 26-day exponential moving average from a 12-day one, then smooths that difference with a 9-day signal line. The histogram is the gap between the two.
Formula. MACD line = EMA(12) - EMA(26); Signal = EMA(9) of MACD line; Histogram = MACD line - Signal.
How to read it
- MACD line crossing above the signal line is the classic bullish trigger; crossing below is bearish.
- A MACD line above zero means the 12-day EMA is above the 26-day EMA, a medium-term uptrend.
- Histogram shrinking towards zero shows momentum fading before a cross happens.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
MACD crosses on Bitcoin's daily chart happen a few times per quarter. In trending markets they capture large moves; in ranges they whipsaw. The statistics focus strictly on initial signal crosses to measure clean, non-diluted forward returns.
Signals tracked on this page
- MACD crosses above signal Bullish MACD line crosses up through its signal line.
- MACD crosses below signal Bearish MACD line crosses down through its signal line.
- Histogram positive Bullish First daily close with the MACD histogram turning positive.
- Histogram negative Bearish First daily close with the MACD histogram turning negative.
- MACD line above zero Bullish First daily close with the MACD line moving above zero.
- MACD line below zero Bearish First daily close with the MACD line moving below zero.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's MACD reads -453.3, which is the "Histogram negative" signal. Since 20 Sep 2011, across 184 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +3.5% (mean +4.8%, 55% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +0.7% and over 3 months +7.8%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each MACD trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD crosses above signal Bullish | MACD line crosses up through its signal line. | +0.2% | +5.3% | +11.5% |
| MACD crosses below signal Bearish | MACD line crosses down through its signal line. | +0.7% | +3.5% | +7.9% |
| Histogram positive Bullish | First daily close with the MACD histogram turning positive. | +0.2% | +5.3% | +11.5% |
| Histogram negative active Bearish | First daily close with the MACD histogram turning negative. | +0.7% | +3.5% | +7.8% |
| MACD line above zero Bullish | First daily close with the MACD line moving above zero. | +2.0% | +8.1% | +6.1% |
| MACD line below zero active Bearish | First daily close with the MACD line moving below zero. | -0.6% | +3.3% | +0.4% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with MACD (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Histogram negative"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 184 | +0.7% | +0.8% | 53% | +48.6% | -25.5% | +0.7% | -0.0% |
| 1 month | 184 | +3.5% | +4.8% | 55% | +123.0% | -60.4% | +2.9% | +0.6% |
| 3 months | 180 | +7.8% | +23.6% | 58% | +770.1% | -55.6% | +10.3% | -2.4% |
Most recent "Histogram negative" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | $83,629 | +2.3% | -7.0% | pending |
| 04 Sep 2026 | $79,677 | -3.1% | +8.6% | pending |
| 02 Sep 2026 | $77,302 | +1.3% | +9.3% | pending |
| 11 Aug 2026 | $63,543 | +1.8% | +20.4% | pending |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $63,698 | -0.4% | +24.1% | +25.7% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,526 | +8.2% | +10.6% | +42.6% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | $60,019 | +4.2% | +8.9% | +40.6% |
| 12 May 2026 | $80,491 | -4.6% | -21.0% | -20.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | $76,323 | +6.0% | -3.7% | -16.5% |
| 26 Mar 2026 | $68,779 | -2.7% | +12.9% | -11.3% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | $67,860 | -2.8% | +12.5% | -5.3% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | $88,316 | +0.9% | -24.2% | -14.1% |
Frequently asked questions
Which MACD settings are used?
The default 12, 26, 9 on daily closes.
How often does Bitcoin produce a MACD cross?
The occurrence count (n) in the table is the exact number of daily crosses in the dataset since 2011.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.