Bitcoin Radar · Sentiment · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Fear & Greed: 34 Fear (26-45)
alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index (0-100) matched to Bitcoin daily closes since 2018. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Fear & Greed trigger signal since 01 Feb 2018.
- Fear & Greed
- 34
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Fear (26-45)
- Median next 1 week
- -0.1%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.5%
- Median next 3 months
- -0.8%
What is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index?
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index by alternative.me condenses volatility, market momentum and volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance and search trends into a single 0 to 100 score published daily since February 2018.
Formula. Composite 0-100 sentiment score published daily by alternative.me (volatility, momentum/volume, social, dominance, trends). Buckets: 0-25 extreme fear, 26-45 fear, 46-54 neutral, 55-75 greed, 76-100 extreme greed.
How to read it
- 0 to 25 extreme fear: the crowd is scared; contrarians read it as a buying zone.
- 76 to 100 extreme greed: the crowd is euphoric; contrarians read it as a warning.
- The index is a sentiment snapshot, not a valuation model; it can stay extreme for weeks.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Because the index is built largely from Bitcoin data, it is effectively a Bitcoin sentiment gauge. The table shows Bitcoin's forward returns after each sentiment bucket since 2018, which is the honest test of the "buy fear, sell greed" adage.
Signals tracked on this page
- Extreme fear (0-25) Bullish First daily close with Fear & Greed below 26.
- Fear (26-45) Neutral First daily close with Fear & Greed between 26 and 45.
- Neutral (46-54) Neutral First daily close with Fear & Greed between 46 and 54.
- Greed (55-75) Neutral First daily close with Fear & Greed between 55 and 75.
- Extreme greed (76-100) Bearish First daily close with Fear & Greed at or above 76.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 34, which is the "Fear (26-45)" signal. Since 01 Feb 2018, across 225 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was -0.5% (mean +1.7%, 48% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -0.1% and over 3 months -0.8%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Fear & Greed trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme fear (0-25) Bullish | First daily close with Fear & Greed below 26. | -0.7% | -1.6% | -9.1% |
| Fear (26-45) active Neutral | First daily close with Fear & Greed between 26 and 45. | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.8% |
| Neutral (46-54) Neutral | First daily close with Fear & Greed between 46 and 54. | +1.3% | +5.4% | +8.1% |
| Greed (55-75) Neutral | First daily close with Fear & Greed between 55 and 75. | +1.5% | +0.1% | +2.3% |
| Extreme greed (76-100) Bearish | First daily close with Fear & Greed at or above 76. | +0.6% | -2.2% | -2.3% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Fear & Greed (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Fear (26-45)"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 225 | -0.1% | +0.0% | 48% | +29.2% | -29.1% | +0.7% | -0.9% |
| 1 month | 225 | -0.5% | +1.7% | 48% | +74.3% | -43.1% | +2.9% | -3.4% |
| 3 months | 223 | -0.8% | +10.2% | 49% | +219.0% | -52.7% | +10.3% | -11.1% |
Most recent "Fear (26-45)" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | $77,187 | pending | pending | pending |
| 07 Aug 2026 | $64,878 | -2.9% | +23.8% | pending |
| 05 Aug 2026 | $64,600 | -1.8% | +23.3% | pending |
| 01 Aug 2026 | $62,760 | +3.4% | +25.2% | +23.0% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | $66,082 | -3.3% | +18.5% | +25.5% |
| 19 Jul 2026 | $64,682 | +1.0% | +0.0% | +25.8% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | $63,892 | +0.3% | -1.7% | +28.5% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | $63,780 | +1.6% | +0.2% | +29.4% |
| 07 Jul 2026 | $63,311 | +2.6% | +1.5% | +35.5% |
| 31 May 2026 | $73,568 | -13.9% | -20.4% | +6.3% |
| 25 May 2026 | $77,255 | -7.7% | -21.1% | +0.6% |
| 20 May 2026 | $77,470 | -4.1% | -18.0% | -16.5% |
Frequently asked questions
Where does the Fear & Greed data come from?
From the public alternative.me API, matched by UTC date to Bitstamp daily closes.
Does extreme fear predict Bitcoin bottoms?
Compare the extreme-fear row with the baseline row. The difference in average return and win rate is the measured historical edge, if any.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.