Bitcoin Radar · Bitcoin cycle · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple: 1.07x Between 1.0 and 1.5
Close divided by the 200-day SMA, bucketed into classic Mayer zones. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Mayer Multiple trigger signal since 04 Mar 2012.
- Mayer Multiple
- 1.07x
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Between 1.0 and 1.5
- Median next 1 week
- +0.5%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.5%
- Median next 3 months
- +5.9%
What is the Mayer Multiple?
The Mayer Multiple, introduced by Trace Mayer, divides the Bitcoin price by its 200-day moving average. Values above 2.4 have historically marked speculative peaks; values below 0.8 deep value.
Formula. Mayer Multiple = Close / SMA(200).
How to read it
- Below 0.8: historically a strong accumulation zone.
- 1.0 to 1.5: healthy uptrend.
- Above 2.4: historically overheated.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
The Mayer Multiple is one of the oldest Bitcoin-native valuation tools. The table shows forward returns in each of its classic zones since 2011.
Signals tracked on this page
- Below 0.8 Bullish First daily close with the Mayer Multiple under 0.8.
- Between 0.8 and 1.0 Neutral First daily close with the Mayer Multiple entering 0.8 to 1.0.
- Between 1.0 and 1.5 Neutral First daily close with the Mayer Multiple entering 1.0 to 1.5.
- Between 1.5 and 2.4 Neutral First daily close with the Mayer Multiple entering 1.5 to 2.4.
- Above 2.4 Bearish First daily close with the Mayer Multiple at or above 2.4.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple reads 1.07x, which is the "Between 1.0 and 1.5" signal. Since 04 Mar 2012, across 86 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was -0.5% (mean +4.7%, 47% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +0.5% and over 3 months +5.9%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Mayer Multiple trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0.8 Bullish | First daily close with the Mayer Multiple under 0.8. | -0.2% | +1.9% | +0.4% |
| Between 0.8 and 1.0 Neutral | First daily close with the Mayer Multiple entering 0.8 to 1.0. | +0.2% | -1.8% | +8.7% |
| Between 1.0 and 1.5 active Neutral | First daily close with the Mayer Multiple entering 1.0 to 1.5. | +0.5% | -0.5% | +5.9% |
| Between 1.5 and 2.4 Neutral | First daily close with the Mayer Multiple entering 1.5 to 2.4. | +3.3% | -0.6% | +0.4% |
| Above 2.4 Bearish | First daily close with the Mayer Multiple at or above 2.4. | +5.4% | +13.5% | -0.3% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Mayer Multiple (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Between 1.0 and 1.5"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 86 | +0.5% | +0.8% | 55% | +27.9% | -38.4% | +0.7% | -0.3% |
| 1 month | 86 | -0.5% | +4.7% | 47% | +83.2% | -35.4% | +2.9% | -3.4% |
| 3 months | 85 | +5.9% | +41.8% | 56% | +761.8% | -42.2% | +10.3% | -4.3% |
Most recent "Between 1.0 and 1.5" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | $69,298 | +14.0% | +16.7% | pending |
| 31 Oct 2025 | $109,554 | -5.7% | -17.5% | -22.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | $110,111 | -1.6% | -23.1% | -18.8% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | $108,684 | +5.4% | -14.5% | -12.5% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | $93,481 | +0.9% | +19.5% | +25.6% |
| 23 Mar 2025 | $86,084 | -4.3% | +8.6% | +18.7% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | $86,868 | +0.1% | -2.8% | +20.4% |
| 14 Mar 2025 | $83,975 | +0.1% | -0.3% | +25.9% |
| 12 Mar 2025 | $83,620 | +3.9% | -0.3% | +31.9% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | $100,153 | -0.8% | +4.0% | -17.4% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | $97,775 | -1.4% | -3.1% | -1.7% |
| 14 Oct 2024 | $66,070 | +1.9% | +37.0% | +43.0% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.