Bitcoin Radar · Trend · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Supertrend: Bearish Supertrend bearish
Supertrend (ATR 10, multiplier 3) direction and flips on the daily chart. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Supertrend trigger signal since 27 Aug 2011.
- Direction
- Bearish
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Supertrend bearish
- Median next 1 week
- +2.2%
- Median next 1 month
- +3.7%
- Median next 3 months
- +0.3%
What is the Supertrend?
Supertrend draws a single line that trails price at a distance of three times the 10-day Average True Range. When price closes through the line, the direction flips.
Formula. Basic upper = (High + Low) / 2 + 3 x ATR(10); basic lower = (High + Low) / 2 - 3 x ATR(10); bands ratchet with trend; direction flips when close crosses the active band.
How to read it
- Line below price: bullish; line above price: bearish.
- A flip is the trade trigger; the line then acts as a trailing stop.
- Wider multipliers flip less often but give back more before flipping.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Supertrend is one of the most searched crypto indicators because it is simple to follow. On Bitcoin's daily chart it flips roughly every few weeks. The flip statistics show the average outcome after each flip.
Signals tracked on this page
- Supertrend bullish Bullish First daily close above the Supertrend line.
- Supertrend bearish Bearish First daily close below the Supertrend line.
- Flips to bullish Bullish Direction changes from bearish to bullish.
- Flips to bearish Bearish Direction changes from bullish to bearish.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Supertrend reads Bearish, which is the "Supertrend bearish" signal. Since 27 Aug 2011, across 62 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +3.7% (mean +9.0%, 58% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +2.2% and over 3 months +0.3%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Supertrend trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend bullish Bullish | First daily close above the Supertrend line. | -0.7% | +3.3% | +8.1% |
| Supertrend bearish active Bearish | First daily close below the Supertrend line. | +2.2% | +3.7% | +0.3% |
| Flips to bullish Bullish | Direction changes from bearish to bullish. | -0.7% | +3.3% | +8.1% |
| Flips to bearish Bearish | Direction changes from bullish to bearish. | +2.4% | +3.9% | +0.7% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Supertrend (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Supertrend bearish"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 62 | +2.2% | +3.1% | 65% | +36.6% | -30.7% | +0.7% | +1.5% |
| 1 month | 62 | +3.7% | +9.0% | 58% | +183.6% | -52.0% | +2.9% | +0.8% |
| 3 months | 62 | +0.3% | +25.0% | 50% | +604.9% | -72.5% | +10.3% | -9.9% |
Most recent "Supertrend bearish" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | $77,793 | pending | pending | pending |
| 22 May 2026 | $75,451 | -2.8% | -16.2% | -3.2% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | $65,954 | +4.6% | +15.7% | -9.1% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | $88,316 | +0.9% | -24.2% | -14.1% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $112,996 | -5.8% | -7.3% | -19.4% |
| 21 Aug 2025 | $112,472 | +0.1% | +2.9% | -18.7% |
| 02 Aug 2025 | $112,522 | +3.5% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 05 Jun 2025 | $101,559 | +4.1% | +6.6% | +10.0% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | $78,561 | +7.0% | +5.1% | +34.7% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | $91,554 | -5.9% | -5.1% | +19.1% |
| 22 Dec 2024 | $95,098 | -1.6% | +11.6% | -11.9% |
| 05 Sep 2024 | $56,158 | +3.5% | +10.5% | +75.9% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.