Bitcoin Radar · Bitcoin cycle · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Halving cycle: 30.4 24 to 36 months after halving
Months since the most recent Bitcoin block-reward halving. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Halving cycle trigger signal since 28 Nov 2012.
- Months since halving
- 30.4
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- 24 to 36 months after halving
- Median next 1 week
- +2.4%
- Median next 1 month
- -0.1%
- Median next 3 months
- -15.8%
What is the Halving Cycle Position?
Bitcoin's block reward halves roughly every four years. The halving cycle indicator counts months since the most recent halving so forward returns can be grouped by cycle phase.
Formula. Months since halving = days since the latest halving date / 30.4375. Halvings: 2012-11-28, 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11, 2024-04-20.
How to read it
- 6 to 18 months after a halving has historically contained the strongest expansions.
- 24 to 36 months after has historically been the bear phase.
- Only four halvings have occurred, so each bucket spans few independent cycles.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
This is the most Bitcoin-specific model on the radar. Treat the results as a description of three and a half completed cycles, not a law.
Signals tracked on this page
- 0 to 6 months after halving Neutral First daily close in the 0 to 6 months after a halving.
- 6 to 12 months after halving Neutral First daily close entering 6 to 12 months after a halving.
- 12 to 18 months after halving Neutral First daily close entering 12 to 18 months after a halving.
- 18 to 24 months after halving Neutral First daily close entering 18 to 24 months after a halving.
- 24 to 36 months after halving Neutral First daily close entering 24 to 36 months after a halving.
- More than 36 months after halving Neutral First daily close 36 or more months after a halving.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Halving Cycle Position reads 30.4, which is the "24 to 36 months after halving" signal. Since 28 Nov 2012, across 4 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was -0.1% (mean -3.2%, 50% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +2.4% and over 3 months -15.8%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Halving cycle trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 6 months after halving Neutral | First daily close in the 0 to 6 months after a halving. | +5.1% | +8.9% | +19.5% |
| 6 to 12 months after halving Neutral | First daily close entering 6 to 12 months after a halving. | -3.9% | +17.4% | +40.7% |
| 12 to 18 months after halving Neutral | First daily close entering 12 to 18 months after a halving. | -14.9% | +0.5% | +13.2% |
| 18 to 24 months after halving Neutral | First daily close entering 18 to 24 months after a halving. | -1.9% | -22.3% | -25.3% |
| 24 to 36 months after halving active Neutral | First daily close entering 24 to 36 months after a halving. | +2.4% | -0.1% | -15.8% |
| More than 36 months after halving Neutral | First daily close 36 or more months after a halving. | +0.3% | -2.0% | +9.7% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Halving cycle (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "24 to 36 months after halving"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 4 | +2.4% | +5.1% | 50% | +16.1% | -0.3% | +0.7% | +1.7% |
| 1 month | 4 | -0.1% | -3.2% | 50% | +3.9% | -16.6% | +2.9% | -3.0% |
| 3 months | 4 | -15.8% | -14.9% | 25% | +4.8% | -32.7% | +10.3% | -26.1% |
Most recent "24 to 36 months after halving" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2026 | $76,345 | -0.0% | +1.6% | -14.6% |
| 12 May 2022 | $28,896 | +4.8% | -1.7% | -17.1% |
| 10 Jul 2018 | $6,299 | +16.1% | +3.9% | +4.8% |
| 29 Nov 2014 | $375.49 | -0.3% | -16.6% | -32.7% |
Frequently asked questions
When were the Bitcoin halvings?
28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, 11 May 2020 and 20 April 2024.
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.