Bitcoin Radar · Bitcoin cycle · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Month of year: November Close in November
Forward returns after the first daily close of each calendar month. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Month of year trigger signal since 18 Aug 2011.
- Month
- November
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Close in November
- Median next 1 week
- +1.0%
- Median next 1 month
- +9.2%
- Median next 3 months
- +21.2%
What is the Monthly Seasonality?
Seasonality groups forward returns by the first daily close of each calendar month. It is a description of the past, not a mechanism.
Formula. Signal turns on at the first UTC daily close of that calendar month.
How to read it
- Compare each month's average forward return with the baseline.
- Win rate shows how consistent the month has been across years.
- With about 14 years of data each month has roughly 14 independent yearly observations, one per first close of that month.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
"Uptober" and "Sell in May" are popular Bitcoin memes. The table is the measured version.
Signals tracked on this page
- Close in January Neutral First daily close of January.
- Close in February Neutral First daily close of February.
- Close in March Neutral First daily close of March.
- Close in April Neutral First daily close of April.
- Close in May Neutral First daily close of May.
- Close in June Neutral First daily close of June.
- Close in July Neutral First daily close of July.
- Close in August Neutral First daily close of August.
- Close in September Neutral First daily close of September.
- Close in October Neutral First daily close of October.
- Close in November Neutral First daily close of November.
- Close in December Neutral First daily close of December.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Monthly Seasonality reads November, which is the "Close in November" signal. Since 18 Aug 2011, across 15 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +9.2% (mean +31.1%, 67% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was +1.0% and over 3 months +21.2%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Month of year trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close in January Neutral | First daily close of January. | +4.4% | -3.4% | -3.1% |
| Close in February Neutral | First daily close of February. | -0.2% | +10.3% | +3.0% |
| Close in March Neutral | First daily close of March. | +0.2% | -2.0% | +12.1% |
| Close in April Neutral | First daily close of April. | +0.3% | +8.8% | +7.0% |
| Close in May Neutral | First daily close of May. | +2.0% | +6.9% | +22.1% |
| Close in June Neutral | First daily close of June. | +1.3% | -0.1% | +3.0% |
| Close in July Neutral | First daily close of July. | +3.1% | +10.4% | +4.4% |
| Close in August Neutral | First daily close of August. | -0.1% | -6.8% | +14.5% |
| Close in September Neutral | First daily close of September. | -2.7% | -2.0% | +25.4% |
| Close in October Neutral | First daily close of October. | +0.4% | +11.8% | +8.7% |
| Close in November active Neutral | First daily close of November. | +1.0% | +9.2% | +21.2% |
| Close in December Neutral | First daily close of December. | +1.5% | +1.4% | +15.0% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Distribution of outcomes after "Close in November"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 15 | +1.0% | +6.6% | 60% | +65.2% | -9.4% | +0.7% | +0.3% |
| 1 month | 15 | +9.2% | +31.1% | 67% | +372.4% | -34.7% | +2.9% | +6.3% |
| 3 months | 15 | +21.2% | +42.1% | 73% | +295.7% | -45.8% | +10.3% | +10.9% |
Most recent "Close in November" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | $78,233 | pending | pending | pending |
| 01 Nov 2025 | $110,047 | -7.1% | -21.6% | -23.6% |
| 01 Nov 2024 | $69,490 | +10.2% | +40.0% | +50.7% |
| 01 Nov 2023 | $35,440 | +0.6% | +9.2% | +21.2% |
| 01 Nov 2022 | $20,480 | -9.4% | -17.1% | +11.5% |
| 01 Nov 2021 | $60,923 | +10.9% | -6.0% | -37.7% |
| 01 Nov 2020 | $13,762 | +12.6% | +36.4% | +149.4% |
| 01 Nov 2019 | $9,250 | -5.2% | -19.9% | +2.7% |
| 01 Nov 2018 | $6,341 | +1.0% | -34.7% | -45.8% |
| 01 Nov 2017 | $6,742 | +10.5% | +60.8% | +47.9% |
| 01 Nov 2016 | $726.60 | -2.4% | +3.4% | +26.6% |
| 01 Nov 2015 | $325.78 | +14.4% | +11.4% | +15.3% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.