Bitcoin Radar · Trend · as of 01 Nov 2026 close
Bitcoin Aroon: -92.0 Down above 70 and Up below 30
Aroon Up / Down (25) trend identification. This page shows the 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after every initial trigger for every Aroon trigger signal since 12 Sep 2011.
- Aroon oscillator
- -92.0
- BTC close
- $78,233
- Active signal
- Down above 70 and Up below 30
- Median next 1 week
- -0.6%
- Median next 1 month
- +1.3%
- Median next 3 months
- +2.9%
What is the Aroon Indicator?
Aroon measures how many days have passed since the 25-day high and the 25-day low. Recent highs push Aroon Up towards 100; recent lows push Aroon Down towards 100.
Formula. Aroon Up = 100 x (25 - days since 25-day high) / 25; Aroon Down = 100 x (25 - days since 25-day low) / 25; Oscillator = Up - Down.
How to read it
- Up above 70 with Down below 30: a fresh uptrend.
- Down above 70 with Up below 30: a fresh downtrend.
- Otherwise the sign of the oscillator (Up minus Down) is the active zone.
Why it matters for Bitcoin
Aroon is a cleaner trend detector than ADX for assets that make frequent new highs, which describes Bitcoin in bull phases.
Signals tracked on this page
- Up above 70 and Down below 30 Bullish First daily close with Aroon Up above 70 and Down below 30.
- Down above 70 and Up below 30 Bearish First daily close with Aroon Down above 70 and Up below 30.
- Oscillator above zero Bullish First daily close with the Aroon oscillator moving above zero, but not a strong trend.
- Oscillator at or below zero Bearish First daily close with the Aroon oscillator moving to or below zero, but not a strong trend.
- Oscillator crosses above zero Bullish Aroon Up overtakes Aroon Down.
- Oscillator crosses below zero Bearish Aroon Down overtakes Aroon Up.
As of the 01 Nov 2026 daily close, Bitcoin's Aroon Indicator reads -92.0, which is the "Down above 70 and Up below 30" signal. Since 12 Sep 2011, across 107 times this signal turned on, Bitcoin's median return over the next 30 days was +1.3% (mean +3.2%, 56% positive) versus an unconditional baseline median of +2.9%. Over 1 week the median was -0.6% and over 3 months +2.9%.
Bitcoin forward returns after each Aroon trigger signal
Median close-to-close return after the first daily close where the signal turned on (trigger). Hover or tap a cell for the mean, win rate and edge versus the unconditional baseline. Click a signal for its dedicated page with recent occurrences.
| Signal | Reading | Median 1 week | Median 1 month | Median 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up above 70 and Down below 30 Bullish | First daily close with Aroon Up above 70 and Down below 30. | +1.1% | +5.3% | +18.9% |
| Down above 70 and Up below 30 active Bearish | First daily close with Aroon Down above 70 and Up below 30. | -0.6% | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| Oscillator above zero Bullish | First daily close with the Aroon oscillator moving above zero, but not a strong trend. | +1.2% | +3.1% | +12.6% |
| Oscillator at or below zero Bearish | First daily close with the Aroon oscillator moving to or below zero, but not a strong trend. | +0.1% | +2.6% | +2.1% |
| Oscillator crosses above zero Bullish | Aroon Up overtakes Aroon Down. | +0.7% | +4.9% | +9.0% |
| Oscillator crosses below zero Bearish | Aroon Down overtakes Aroon Up. | +1.2% | +3.0% | +6.8% |
| Baseline: all Bitcoin daily closes | Unconditional median over the same horizons. | +0.7% | +2.9% | +10.0% |
Bitcoin price with Aroon (last 2 years)
Interactive chart requires JavaScript. All statistics are in the tables on this page.
Distribution of outcomes after "Down above 70 and Up below 30"
Histogram of Bitcoin's forward returns for the active signal, one panel per horizon. The vertical axis is the number of triggers; the horizontal axis is close-to-close return, compressed so large outliers do not hide the typical range. Bars left of zero are losses, right are gains.
1 week
Forward return (compressed scale)
1 month
Forward return (compressed scale)
3 months
Forward return (compressed scale)
| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win rate | Best | Worst | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 110 | -0.6% | +0.2% | 46% | +54.2% | -25.6% | +0.7% | -1.3% |
| 1 month | 107 | +1.3% | +3.2% | 56% | +57.0% | -36.0% | +2.9% | -1.6% |
| 3 months | 106 | +2.9% | +13.7% | 59% | +356.8% | -49.3% | +10.3% | -7.4% |
Most recent "Down above 70 and Up below 30" occurrences
| Close date | BTC close | Next 1 week | Next 1 month | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | $80,772 | -4.1% | pending | pending |
| 20 Oct 2026 | $82,946 | -2.6% | pending | pending |
| 15 Oct 2026 | $82,131 | -1.0% | pending | pending |
| 09 Aug 2026 | $64,857 | -3.1% | +21.0% | pending |
| 03 Jul 2026 | $62,522 | +2.5% | +1.6% | +35.7% |
| 24 Jun 2026 | $60,987 | -1.7% | +5.1% | +41.3% |
| 24 May 2026 | $76,975 | -4.4% | -18.6% | +0.1% |
| 04 Apr 2026 | $67,290 | +8.6% | +18.7% | -7.1% |
| 01 Feb 2026 | $76,888 | -8.6% | -11.1% | +2.3% |
| 14 Nov 2025 | $94,509 | -10.0% | -6.7% | -29.9% |
| 04 Nov 2025 | $101,466 | +1.5% | -9.2% | -22.5% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | $111,039 | -1.3% | -21.8% | -19.4% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these Bitcoin returns calculated?
Every statistic uses Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes since August 2011. A signal is recorded only on the first daily close after the condition turns on, not on every later close while it stays on. From that trigger date we take the close 7, 30 and 90 calendar days later and compute close-to-close percentage returns. Tables show the median because Bitcoin returns are right-skewed; the mean is on hover. Win rates are compared with the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizons.
Why are these statistics based on initial triggers only?
Trigger statistics record only the first daily close when a condition is met, rather than every consecutive close during an ongoing regime. This eliminates overlapping, auto-correlated observations that dilute signal clarity and provides clean, independent forward returns.
Is this trading advice?
No. These are descriptive historical statistics, not forecasts. Past behaviour of an indicator on Bitcoin does not guarantee future results, and sample sizes for rare signals are small.
Methodology
- Data. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily closes from Bitstamp, 18 Aug 2011 to 01 Nov 2026 (5555 closes). One exchange, one series, no splicing.
- Trigger evaluation. Evaluated strictly on the initial daily close when the signal condition turns active (the first close after being inactive). Consecutive ongoing closes are excluded to prevent signal dilution and sample clustering.
- Forward return. For horizon h in {7, 30, 90} days:
close[t + h] / close[t] - 1, both daily closes. Indicators use data up to and including close[t], so there is no lookahead. - Statistics. Tables show the median return because Bitcoin's return distribution is right-skewed; the mean is on hover (and in the detailed columns). Also published: occurrence count n, win rate (share of positive returns), and the unconditional Bitcoin baseline over the same horizon. Edge = median minus baseline median. Signals with fewer than 3 occurrences are omitted.
- Caveats. Rare signals have small samples. External series start later than price (Fear & Greed 2018). Open interest and long/short ratios are excluded because no reliable multi-year history exists.
- Refresh. Recomputed once per day after the 00:00 UTC close. Last computed 2 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC.